College Football Betting Odds & Picks: Baylor vs. Oklahoma (Saturday, Dec. 5)
John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Oklahoma Sooners running back Marcus Major.
- Baylor makes the journey north to Norman for Saturday's game against No. 11 Oklahoma
- The Sooners are 27-3 all-time against the Bears, including a 13-1 record in home games.
- Patrick Strollo shares some insight on the game and delivers his top pick below.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma Odds
|Baylor Odds||+21.5 [BET NOW]|
|Oklahoma Odds||-21.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+800 / -1430 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||62.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Thursday at 10:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today.|
Baylor makes the journey north to Norman, Okla., for Saturday’s game against No. 11 Oklahoma at Gaylord Family — Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.
The Sooners are looking for their sixth consecutive win after a slow start to the 2020 season. This is a rematch of last season’s Big 12 Championship game, where Oklahoma earned the 30-23 overtime victory. The Sooners need a win to stay in contention for a return trip to the title game.
Historically, Oklahoma has owned the series. The Sooners are 27-3 all-time against the Bears, including a 13-1 record in home games. In contrast. Baylor is 2-4-1 against the spread this season. The team and has gone over the total in three of its seven games, with one push on the number.
Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS, with five of its eight games going over the total.
Last weekend, Charlie Brewer led Baylor to a 32-31 nail-biting win over Kansas State by throwing for 349 yards and two touchdowns. On the other side, Oklahoma’s game against West Virginia last weekend was postponed.
Prior to that, Oklahoma rolled to a 41-13 win over in-state rival Oklahoma State. Redshirt Freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler was 17 for 24 for 301 yards passing and five touchdowns, which included one on the ground.
With Oklahoma assistant coaches missing this game due to COVID-19 issues, head coach Lincoln Riley has called upon legendary Sooners coach Bob Stoops to help prepare for this game. It’s unclear what role Stoops will serve.
That said, can the Bears spoil Oklahoma’s aspirations of another conference title? Let’s dig in to see how to bet this contest.
Brewer is the 39th-ranked passer in FBS in total passing yards this year, throwing for 1,627 yards thus far. He connected on 13 touchdown passes against six interceptions. Brewer is Baylor’s biggest offensive weapon, due to the fact its rushing offense ranks a subpar 116th in the country.
The Bears are averaging 102.6 yards per game on the ground, with only seven touchdowns coming via that route this season.
Baylor ranks 108th in FBS total offense, averaging 335.4 yards per game. The Bears have an offensive Predicted Points Added (PPA) per play of 0.08, which also ranks 108th. Baylor allows havoc on 20% of its offensive plays, which is well above the national average and into 105th in the ranking.
The Bears will have to rely on Brewer if they want to hang with the Sooners, which doesn’t look likely given the host’s jet-fueled attack.
Defensively, the Bears are a different team. Head coach Dave Aranda is a defensive-minded man, having headed to Waco after winning a national championship with LSU last season.
Baylor’s standout on the defensive side of the ball has been junior safety/linebacker Jalen Pitre, who had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in as many weeks.
Defensively, Baylor is ranked 42nd in FBS total defense, allowing 367.7 yards per game. The Bears have a defensive PPA per play of 0.18, good enough for 40th in the country in that metric. They generate Havoc on 18% of plays, which is above the FBS average and ranks 51st nationally.
Rattler, the consensus No. 1 recruit in the 2019 class, is ranked 15th in FBS with 2,319 passing yards. He has 22 touchdowns and six interceptions.
While the passing game is key to the Sooners’ success, they do rank 59th in the country with 168.3 yards per game while running for 22 touchdowns. T.J. Pledger is the leading rusher at 411 yards, but Rhamondre Stevenson is right behind him at 332 yards and averages 6.6 yards per carry.
Overall, Oklahoma ranks 10th in FBS total offense, averaging 512.1 yards per game. The Sooners have an offensive PPA per play of 0.35, which is significantly above the FBS average of 0.17 and puts them 10th nationally in the metric.
The Sooners allow offensive Havoc on 17% of plays, which is in line with the FBS average. The Bears will have to blitz and hit Rattler if they want to slow the Oklahoma aerial attack.
Oklahoma’s defense has held its last two opponents to a combined 22 points, imposing its will in those games. Oklahoma defensive coordinator Alex Grinch seems to have fully implemented his speed defense scheme. After finishing the 2018 season ranked 118th in FBS total defense, the Sooners’ defense has been on a rapid ascension.
Oklahoma ranks 19th in FBS total defense, averaging 326.6 yards allowed per game. The Sooners have a defensive PPA per play of 0.10, putting them 16th nationally in the metric. They generate Havoc on 23% of plays, which is 10th best in the nation. The defensive improvement in recent years has been remarkable and could mean a long game for the Bears.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Sooners are firing on all cylinders after a shaky start to the season. As for the Bears, they have shown flashes of brilliance with their offense, but have been unable to step up in big games.
The top-ranked Sooners’ offense should find some resistance from a capable Bears’ defense, but the recently revamped home side’s defense will look to shut down the visitor’s offense when it has the ball.
My model has the total right at 59 points. That said, I think there’s value in the under given the strength of both defenses and Baylor’s weak offense.
Pick: Total Under 63 (down to 61).