Sep 29, 2018; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans running back Connor Heyward (11) gestures a first down during the second half of a game against the Central Michigan Chippewas at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
- After a quiet couple of weeks on the weather front, there are 18 games forecasted to have winds of at least 10 mph on Saturday.
- The over/under has dropped in 13 of those games, including seven games in which it has dropped by at least four points.
- Despite the calendar reading October, there are still five games expected to boast temperatures of 85 degrees or higher.
The past two weeks of weather have been very boring in both college football and the NFL. Hell, I haven’t been able to write about NFL weather because there’s literally been nothing to say.
This week, Mother Nature is throwing us a bone.
We could be looking at the big weekend of the season as there are numerous games currently projected to have double-digit wind speeds. Thirteen of the 18 games listed at 10+ mph have had their totals drop since opening, with a number of them falling quite drastically.
Getting a bad line isn’t the end of the world in these spots. In fact, if we use Bet Labs to look only at games in which the total has dropped, unders hit at a rate of 56.1%.
Any drops between one-half point and 6.5 points have yielded a 56.3% win rate, but the winnings drop off in extreme cases. Unders in games in which the total has fallen by a touchdown or more have gone just 12-13.
In addition to the wind, there could be some precipitation falling in a number of these games. All games being played in Michigan and the Iowa State-Oklahoma State game have the highest chances of rain on the slate this weekend.
These games won’t exactly feel like fall despite the wind and rain. The temperature in Michigan will be in the 70s, so it’ll be more balmy than raw.
Here we are in October, but still getting a handful of hot college football games. Though hot games going over isn’t as easy to explain as windy games going under, there’s no denying it’s been a profitable approach, with this season producing almost the exact same win percentage as the historical rate.
In games with temperatures of at least 85 degrees, overs have hit 54.8% of the time since 2005, including a 40-33 record this season.