College Football Bowl Game Predictions: Week 13 CFP Rankings Shift Projected Matchups

Updated College Football Bowl Projections for Week 13

One bowl bid down — 81 to go! On Tuesday night, Miami (OH) defeated Ball State, 18-17, to officially claim the first bowl bid of the season, earning a spot in the Bahama’s Bowl.

Miami (OH) will face an opponent from Conference USA.

In addition to the RedHawks securing the first bowl bid of the 2022 season, the College Football Playoff Committee released its updated rankings ahead of Rivalry Week. All of Tuesday's action prompted updated bowl projections before the rest of the week's games kick off.

There are now 74 bowl-eligible teams to fill the 82 spots. That number will climb to 75 bowl-eligible teams on Saturday with the Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern winner becoming bowl-eligible.

That leaves only seven bowl openings with 13 teams on the verge of six wins. Of the remaining 13 teams needing a win, only four are favored this week:

• Buffalo (-4) vs. Kent State
• UAB (-17.5) at Louisiana Tech
• Louisiana (-5.5) at Texas State
• Southern Miss (-3) at UL-Monroe

If all of the favorites win, then we’re up to 79 bowl-eligible teams.

That leaves nine more teams one win shy of earning a bowl berth. However, it won’t be easy for those nine. All of them are underdogs this week:

• Missouri (+3) vs. Arkansas
• Georgia Tech (+35.5) vs. Georgia
• FAU (+7) vs. Western Kentucky
• Rice (+14) at North Texas
• Auburn (+22) at Alabama
• UTEP (+17) at UTSA
• Michigan State (+18) at Penn State
• Vanderbilt (+14) vs. Tennessee
• Miami (+6.5) at Pitt

So, what happens if there aren't 82 bowl-eligible teams? I’m glad you asked.

The highest-ranked teams, based on their Academic Progress Rate (APR) scores from 2020-21 (the latest data available), will earn the bids. If all of the five-win teams lose this weekend, there would be a maximum of seven five-win teams needed. In these projections, I have three 5-7 teams needed: Rice, UNLV and Auburn.

Here's the order of teams based on APR that can finish with five wins. Obviously, if any of these teams get win No. 6, they will go bowling and be removed from the APR list.

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1. Rice (5-6) 994
2. Iowa State (4-7) 986
3. UNLV (4-7) 984
4. Auburn (5-6) 983* (980)
5. Missouri (5-6) 983* (973)
6. Michigan State (5-6) 983* (952)
7. Miami (5-6) 982
8. Georgia Tech (5-6) 979
9. Rutgers (4-7) 977
10. Indiana (4-7) 976
11. Cal (4-7) 975
12. West Virginia (4-7) 974* (960)
13. Georgia State (4-7) 974* (958)
14. Buffalo (5-5) 968* (959)
15. Appalachian State (5-6) 968* (953)

*For teams with identical scores, the tiebreaker is the previous year’s APR from 2019-20.

Here are this week’s projections following Tuesday’s latest College Football Playoff rankings with Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

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CFP National Championship Prediction

• CFP National Championship

  Monday, Jan. 9

  ⋅

  Los Angeles, CA

  Georgia

  -2

  Ohio State

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

• Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Atlanta, GA

  Georgia

  -17

  USC
• Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Glendale, AZ

  Ohio State

  -12

  TCU

New Year's Six Bowl Games

• Rose Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Pasadena, CA

  Oregon

  Michigan

  -7
• Goodyear Cotton Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Arlington, TX

  Tennessee

  -7

  Tulane

• Allstate Sugar Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  New Orleans, LA

  Kansas State

  PK

  LSU

  PK
• Capital One Orange Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Miami, FL

  Clemson

  Alabama

  -4.5

Projections for All Other Bowls

• Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  Ole Miss

  Penn State

  -4
• ReliaQuest Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Tampa, FL

  Florida

  Iowa

  -2
• Music City Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Nashville, TN

  Kentucky

  PK

  Illinois

  PK

• Arizona Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Tucson, AZ

  Buffalo

  Wyoming

  -4
• TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Jacksonville, FL

  South Carolina

  Florida State

  -9.5
• Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  El Paso, TX

  Wake Forest

  PK

  Oregon State

  PK

• Duke's Mayo Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Charlotte, NC

  Pittsburgh

  Minnesota

  -3
• Valero Alamo Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  San Antonio, TX

  Texas

  -4.5

  Washington
• Cheez-It Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  Notre Dame

  PK

  Oklahoma

  PK

• Pinstripe Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  Bronx, NY

  Louisville

  PK

  Purdue

  PK
• TaxAct Texas Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Houston, TX

  Arkansas

  -1.5

  Oklahoma State
• Holiday Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  San Diego, CA

  North Carolina

  Utah

  -6.5

• AutoZone Liberty Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Memphis, TN

  Auburn

  Baylor

  -7.5
• Military Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Annapolis, MD

  NC State

  PK

  Cincinnati

  PK
• Guaranteed Rate Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Phoenix, AZ

  Wisconsin

  -6

  Kansas

• Camellia Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Montgomery, AL

  Appalachian State

  -15.5

  Eastern Michigan
• Birmingham Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Birmingham, AL

  Memphis

  -8.5

  Southern Miss
• First Responder Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Dallas, TX

  Texas Tech

  -4

  SMU

• Quick Lane Bowl

  Monday, Dec. 26

  ⋅

  Detroit, MI

  Maryland

  -20.5

  Bowling Green
• EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 24

  ⋅

  Honolulu, HI

  San Diego State

  -3

  Middle Tennessee
• Gasparilla Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 23

  ⋅

  Tampa, FL

  Syracuse

  -4

  Liberty

• Independence Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 23

  ⋅

  Shreveport, LA

  Houston

  -7.5

  Louisiana
• Armed Forces Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 22

  ⋅

  Fort Worth, TX

  Air Force

  PK

  BYU

  PK
• New Orleans Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 21

  ⋅

  New Orleans, LA

  North Texas

  Troy

  -7.5

• Boca Raton Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 20

  ⋅

  Boca Raton, FL

  UTSA

  -5.5

  Coastal Carolina
• Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 20

  ⋅

  Boise, ID

  Toledo

  -5.5

  Utah State
• Myrtle Beach Bowl

  Monday, Dec. 19

  ⋅

  Conway, SC

  UConn

  UNLV

  -4.5

• Frisco Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Frisco, TX

  South Alabama

  -1.5

  Fresno State
• Las Vegas Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Las Vegas, NV

  Mississippi State

  UCLA

  -1.5
• LendingTree Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Mobile, AL

  Ohio

  Marshall

  -6

• Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Los Angeles, CA

  Washington State

  Boise State

  -2.5
• New Mexico Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Albuquerque, NM

  San Jose State

  -5.5

  Rice
• Wasabi Fenway Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Boston, MA

  Duke

  -2.5

  East Carolina

• • Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16

    ⋅

    Orlando, FL

    UCF

    -9

    Western Kentucky
  • Bahamas Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16

    ⋅

    Nassau, Bahamas

    UAB

    -10

    Miami (OH)

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**If there are enough six-win teams to fill 42 bowls, ESPN will create another bowl not listed above. This week, Action Network does not project enough six-win teams for a 42nd bowl.

Highlighted teams are confirmed to have earned a spot in their respective bowls.

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