College Football Bowl Predictions: Brett McMurphy’s Week 11 Projections With Projected Spreads

Week 11 College Football Bowl Predictions

In 2020, when the recent six-year bowl cycle began, there was a guaranteed spot for 84 teams to fill 42 bowls.

Last year, when the San Francisco Bowl folded, it was reduced to 82 bowl teams until ESPN created a bowl literally in the last minute. This allowed all 84 bowl-eligible teams to play in the postseason.

But because it appears there will not be enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all 84 spots this year, ESPN will not need to create an additional bowl to replace the San Francisco Bowl, sources told Action Network.

Entering the season’s final four weeks, I’m projecting there will not be 82 bowl-eligible teams, meaning several 5-7 teams would be needed to fill the remaining spots. ESPN will only add an additional bowl — like last year, it's expected to be the Frisco Football Classic, sources said — if there are 84 teams that reach six wins and bowl eligibility.

After last weekend, 52 teams are now bowl-eligible, while 15 have been mathematically eliminated. That means 64 teams are alive to reach bowl eligibility with 30 spots to fill.

Still, this week’s projections include three 5-7 teams: Missouri, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Here are this week’s projections with Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

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CFP National Championship Prediction

• CFP National Championship

  Monday, Jan. 9

  ⋅

  Los Angeles, CA

  Georgia

  PK

  Ohio State

  PK

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

• Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Atlanta, GA

  Georgia

  -10.5

  Tennessee
• Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Glendale, AZ

  Ohio State

  -17

  UCLA

New Year's Six Bowl Games

• Rose Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Pasadena, CA

  Oregon

  Michigan

  -4.5
• Goodyear Cotton Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Arlington, TX

  LSU

  -9

  Tulane

• Allstate Sugar Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  New Orleans, LA

  TCU

  Alabama

  -5.5
• Capital One Orange Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Miami, FL

  North Carolina

  Penn State

  -6.5

Projections for All Other Bowls

• Citrus Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  Illinois

  Ole Miss

  -4
• ReliaQuest Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Tampa, FL

  Notre Dame

  -5

  Kentucky
• Music City Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Nashville, TN

  Wisconsin

  -1.5

  Florida

• Arizona Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Tucson, AZ

  Buffalo

  Fresno State

  -8
• TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Jacksonville, FL

  Clemson

  -5

  Mississippi State
• Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  El Paso, TX

  Louisville

  -3.5

  Oregon State

• Duke's Mayo Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Charlotte, NC

  NC State

  Iowa

  -1
• Valero Alamo Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  San Antonio, TX

  Texas

  -3.5

  USC
• Cheez-It Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  Florida State

  -2

  Baylor

• Pinstripe Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  Bronx, NY

  Pittsburgh

  Minnesota

  -3
• TaxAct Texas Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Houston, TX

  Oklahoma

  -9

  South Carolina
• Holiday Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  San Diego, CA

  Wake Forest

  -1.5

  Washington

• AutoZone Liberty Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Memphis, TN

  Oklahoma State

  -4.5

  Missouri
• Military Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Annapolis, MD

  Duke

  Cincinnati

  -12
• Guaranteed Rate Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Phoenix, AZ

  Purdue

  Kansas State

  -4.5

• Camellia Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Montgomery, AL

  Eastern Michigan

  South Alabama

  -14.5
• Birmingham Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Birmingham, AL

  BYU

  Iowa State

  -6
• First Responder Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Dallas, TX

  Kansas

  -13

  San Diego State

• Quick Lane Bowl

  Monday, Dec. 26

  ⋅

  Detroit, MI

  Michigan State

  -18.5

  Bowling Green
• EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 24

  ⋅

  Honolulu, HI

  San Jose State

  -13

  Middle Tennessee
• Gasparilla Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 23

  ⋅

  Tampa, FL

  Georgia Tech

  Liberty

  -7

• Independence Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 23

  ⋅

  Shreveport, LA

  Louisiana

  Houston

  -7.5
• Armed Forces Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 22

  ⋅

  Fort Worth, TX

  Air Force

  Texas Tech

  -5
• New Orleans Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 21

  ⋅

  New Orleans, LA

  UTSA

  Troy

  -1.5

• Boca Raton Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 20

  ⋅

  Boca Raton, FL

  East Carolina

  -5

  Coastal Carolina
• Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 20

  ⋅

  Boise, ID

  Toledo

  -7

  UNLV
• Myrtle Beach Bowl

  Monday, Dec. 19

  ⋅

  Conway, SC

  Western Kentucky

  -5.5

  Georgia Southern

• Frisco Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Frisco, TX

  Memphis

  PK

  Appalachian State

  PK
• Las Vegas Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Las Vegas, NV

  Arkansas

  Utah

  -4.5
• LendingTree Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Mobile, AL

  Ball State

  Marshall

  -11

• Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Los Angeles, CA

  Washington State

  Boise State

  -2
• New Mexico Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Albuquerque, NM

  Wyoming

  North Texas

  -14
• Wasabi Fenway Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Boston, MA

  UCF

  -2.5

  Syracuse

• • Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16

    ⋅

    Orlando, FL

    UAB

    -4.5

    Southern Miss
  • Bahamas Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16

    ⋅

    Nassau, Bahamas

    Florida Atlantic

    PK

    Ohio

    PK

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**If there are enough six-win teams to fill 42 bowls, ESPN will create another bowl not listed above. This week, Action Network does not project enough six-win teams for a 42nd bowl.

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