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College Football Bowl Game Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Week 13 Predictions with Projected Spreads

College Football Bowl Game Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Week 13 Predictions with Projected Spreads article feature image
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Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels (5).

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 13

Entering the final week of the regular season, there are 73 bowl-eligible teams qualified to fill 82 spots. There are 17 teams only one win shy of getting bowl-eligible, so there should be more than enough bowl-eligible teams to fill the bowl lineup. Right?

Well, not exactly.

Of the teams needing one win, there are two matchups with the winner becoming bowl eligible: Ball State at Miami (Ohio) on Tuesday and Appalachian State at Georgia Southern on Saturday. That will guarantee at least 75 bowl-eligible teams.

Of the remaining 13 teams needing a win, only four are favored this week: Buffalo (-3) vs. Kent State, UAB (-17) at Louisiana Tech, Louisiana (-5) at Texas State and Southern Miss (-3½) at UL-Monroe. If all of the favorites win, then we’re up to 79 bowl-eligible teams.

That leaves nine more teams one win shy of earning a bowl berth. However, it won’t be so easy for those nine. All of them are underdogs this week: Missouri, Georgia Tech, FAU, Rice, Auburn, UTEP, Michigan State, Vanderbilt and Miami.

Nine 5-win teams play teams who have clinched a bowl. All 9 teams needing a win are underdogs via @CircaSports

Mizzou +5 Arkansas
Ga Tech +33 Georgia
FAU +5 WKU
Rice +12 at North Texas
Auburn +21 at Bama
UTEP +18 at UTSA
Mich St +16 at Penn St
Vandy +14 Tennessee
Miami +7 Pitt

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) November 21, 2022

Depending on how many upsets occur involving these teams, we could fall anywhere from seven teams short or exceed the 82 teams needed. If so, ESPN will create an additional bowl to allow up to 84 bowl-eligible teams.

For this week’s projections, I am projecting we come up three spots short, so I am including three 5-7 teams to fill out the bowl lineup. Those teams, ranked by their Academic Progress Rates, are Rice, UNLV and Auburn.

Here are this week’s projections with Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

CFP National Championship Prediction

  • CFP National Championship

    Monday, Jan. 9
    Los Angeles, CA

    Georgia

    -2

    Ohio State


College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

  • Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Atlanta, GA

    Georgia

    -17

    USC

  • Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Glendale, AZ

    Ohio State

    -12

    TCU


New Year’s Six Bowl Games

  • Rose Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Pasadena, CA

    Oregon

    Michigan

    -7
  • Goodyear Cotton Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Arlington, TX

    Tennessee

    -7

    Tulane

  • Allstate Sugar Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    New Orleans, LA

    Kansas State

    PK

    LSU

    PK
  • Capital One Orange Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Miami, FL

    Clemson

    Alabama

    -4.5

Projections for All Other Bowls

  • Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Orlando, FL

    Ole Miss

    Penn State

    -4
  • ReliaQuest Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Tampa, FL

    Florida

    Iowa

    -2
  • Music City Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Nashville, TN

    Kentucky

    PK

    Illinois

    PK
  • Arizona Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Tucson, AZ

    Buffalo

    Fresno State

    -13.5
  • TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Jacksonville, FL

    South Carolina

    Notre Dame

    -5.5
  • Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    El Paso, TX

    Wake Forest

    PK

    Oregon State

    PK
  • Duke’s Mayo Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Charlotte, NC

    Pittsburgh

    Minnesota

    -3
  • Valero Alamo Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    San Antonio, TX

    Texas

    -4.5

    Washington

  • Cheez-It Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Orlando, FL

    North Carolina

    PK

    Oklahoma State

    PK
  • Pinstripe Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Bronx, NY

    Louisville

    PK

    Purdue

    PK
  • TaxAct Texas Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Houston, TX

    Arkansas

    Oklahoma

    -3.5
  • Holiday Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    San Diego, CA

    Florida State

    -2.5

    Utah

  • AutoZone Liberty Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Memphis, TN

    Auburn

    Baylor

    -7.5
  • Military Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Annapolis, MD

    NC State

    PK

    Cincinnati

    PK
  • Guaranteed Rate Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Phoenix, AZ

    Wisconsin

    -6

    Kansas

  • Camellia Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Montgomery, AL

    Appalachian State

    -15.5

    Eastern Michigan

  • Birmingham Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Birmingham, AL

    Memphis

    -8.5

    Southern Miss

  • First Responder Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Dallas, TX

    Texas Tech

    -4

    SMU

  • Quick Lane Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 26
    Detroit, MI

    Maryland

    -20.5

    Bowling Green

  • EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 24
    Honolulu, HI

    San Jose State

    PK

    Middle Tennessee

    PK
  • Gasparilla Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Tampa, FL

    Syracuse

    -15

    UConn

  • Independence Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Shreveport, LA

    Houston

    -7.5

    Louisiana

  • Armed Forces Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 22
    Fort Worth, TX

    Air Force

    PK

    BYU

    PK
  • New Orleans Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 21
    New Orleans, LA

    North Texas

    Troy

    -7.5
  • Boca Raton Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boca Raton, FL

    UTSA

    -5.5

    Coastal Carolina

  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boise, ID

    Toledo

    PK

    San Diego State

    PK
  • Myrtle Beach Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 19
    Conway, SC

    Liberty

    -6.5

    UNLV

  • Frisco Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Frisco, TX

    South Alabama

    PK

    Utah State

    PK
  • Las Vegas Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Las Vegas, NV

    Mississippi State

    UCLA

    -1.5
  • LendingTree Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Mobile, AL

    Miami (OH)

    Marshall

    -11
  • Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Los Angeles, CA

    Washington State

    Boise State

    -2.5
  • New Mexico Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Albuquerque, NM

    Wyoming

    -5.5

    Rice

  • Wasabi Fenway Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Boston, MA

    Duke

    -2.5

    East Carolina

    • Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

      Friday, Dec. 16
      Orlando, FL

      UCF

      -9

      Western Kentucky

    • Bahamas Bowl

      Friday, Dec. 16
      Nassau, Bahamas

      UAB

      -4.5

      Ohio


* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**If there are enough six-win teams to fill 42 bowls, ESPN will create another bowl not listed above. This week, Action Network does not project enough six-win teams for a 42nd bowl.

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