College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Preseason Predictions With Projected Spreads
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Clifford.
It’s beginning to look a lot like the start of the college football season. Everywhere you go. … Conferences are expanding. Others may be crumbling. And some are trying to combine forces like Justice League superheroes.
But the surest sign the official start is a few days away is the release of my first bowl projections at The Action Network. As I have in past years (decades), I will provide the most accurate bowl projections on the planet.
This year with The Action Network, though, you will get an added bonus. Each bowl projection will include the projected point spread for that game based on Collin Wilson’s current power ratings.
The biggest challenge this year with my projections is at least 12 Group of 5 bowls (all owned by ESPN) do not have a specific conference tie-in. Instead, the 12 bowls will select from a “pool” of teams from multiple conferences. Or more specifically, ESPN will assign teams to those bowls in early December.
This creates more flexibility for the bowls but makes it virtually impossible to predict which conference will be assigned to each of those bowls.
There is some good news: College football will have a record 84 teams in the 42 bowls (not including the College Football Playoff title game).
New to the postseason lineup this year are the Fenway and Los Angeles bowls.
Last season, there were 40 bowls, but 18 were canceled when teams were not available because of COVID-19 or a decision to not participate.
On to the 2021 bowl lineup. And remember: if you hate my projections, they’ll probably change next week.
College Football Playoff National Championship
Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN
Projection: Ohio State vs. Alabama
Proj. Spread: Alabama -2.5
College Football Playoff Semifinals
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma
Proj. Spread: Ohio State -2.5
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX
Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Georgia
Proj. Spread: Alabama -7.5
New Year's Six Bowls
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M
Proj. Spread: Iowa State -0.5
Rose Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA
Projection: Utah vs. Wisconsin
Proj. Spread: Wisconsin -1
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ
Projection: North Carolina vs. UCF*
Proj. Spread: North Carolina -5.5
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA
Projection: Clemson vs. Oregon
Proj. Spread: Clemson -11.5
Other Bowls
Texas Bowl
Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX
Projection: TCU vs. Mississippi State
Proj. Spread: TCU -4.5
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Penn State vs. Florida
Proj. Spread: Penn State -5
Outback Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Michigan vs. LSU
Proj. Spread: LSU -3.5
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ
Projection: Central Michigan vs. Fresno State
Proj. Spread: Fresno State -0.5
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL
Projection: Miami (FL) vs. Auburn
Proj. Spread: Miami (FL) -3.5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX
Projection: Louisville vs. UCLA
Proj. Spread: UCLA -0.5
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN
Projection: Indiana vs. Missouri
Proj. Spread: Indiana -5.5
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC
Projection: Pitt vs. Ole Miss
Proj. Spread: Ole Miss -1.5
Las Vegas Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV
Projection: Iowa vs. Washington
Proj. Spread: Pick 'em
Valero Alamo Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX
Projection: Oklahoma State vs. USC
Proj. Spread: Oklahoma State -3.5
Cheez-It Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas
Proj. Spread: Texas -3
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Minnesota
Proj. Spread: Virginia Tech -2
Fenway Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA
Projection: Virginia vs. Houston
Proj. Spread: Virginia -2
SDCCU Holiday Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA
Projection: NC State vs. Arizona State
Proj. Spread: Arizona State -4.5
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ
Projection: Northwestern vs. West Virginia
Proj. Spread: West Virginia -9.5
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN
Projection: Kansas State vs. Kentucky
Proj. Spread: Kentucky -4
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Army
Proj. Spread: Pick 'em
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL
Projection: Memphis vs. Tennessee
Proj. Spread: Tennessee -3.5
Military Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD
Projection: Boston College vs. Cincinnati
Proj. Spread: Cincinnati -9
Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI
Projection: Maryland vs. Toledo
Proj. Spread: Maryland -3
Camellia Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL
Projection: San Jose State vs. Appalachian State
Proj. Spread: Appalachian State -4.5
EasyPost Hawaii Bowl
Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI
Projection: Hawaii vs. UTSA
Proj. Spread: UTSA -2
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Tulsa vs. Arkansas
Proj. Spread: Arkansas -2.5
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX
Projection: SMU vs. Baylor
Proj. Spread: SMU -1
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID
Projection: Buffalo vs. San Diego State
Proj. Spread: San Diego State -5
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX
Projection: Rice vs. Georgia State
Proj. Spread: Georgia State -4.5
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC
Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina
Proj. Spread: Coastal Carolina -10
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: Marshall vs. Louisiana
Proj. Spread: Louisiana -2
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA
Projection: Cal vs. Boise State
Proj. Spread: Pick 'em
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA
Projection: BYU vs. Western Kentucky
Proj. Spread: BYU -5
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL
Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. Troy
Proj. Spread: Troy -9
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM
Projection: Nevada vs. Western Michigan
Proj. Spread: Nevada -2.5
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL
Projection: UAB vs. Tulane
Proj. Spread: Tulane -0.5
Cure Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Florida Atlantic vs. Liberty
Proj. Spread: Liberty -9.5
Bahamas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas
Projection: Louisiana Tech vs. Ball State
Proj. Spread: Ball State -18.5
Redbox Bowl
TBD ⋅ San Francisco, CA
Projection: Nebraska vs. Washington State
Proj. Spread: Washington State -0.5
* The highest-rated championfrom the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.
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