2019 Frisco Bowl Sharp Betting Picks & Predictions: How Pros Are Playing Kent State vs. Utah State

2019 Frisco Bowl Sharp Betting Picks & Predictions: How Pros Are Playing Kent State vs. Utah State article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dustin Crum

  • Both the spread and the over/under in the 2019 Frisco Bowl between Kent State and Utah State have seen significant betting action from professional bettors.
  • The updated line for the game is Utah State -7, while the over/under has been bet all the way up to 71.
  • Below, we'll use our proprietary tools to analyze the betting market and reveal how sharps are playing the 2019 Frisco Bowl.

Bowl games will finally kick off this afternoon, but bowl season has been in full gear for some time … just ask oddsmakers.

Both of Friday’s games have seen some major movement in the betting market over the past week or so, thanks to some interesting weather, player uncertainty and, of course, sharp action.

Sharps have found some value on both games, compiling three plays in total as two have come out of tonight’s Frisco Bowl.


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Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo vs. Charlotte

2 p.m. ET | ESPN | Nassau, Bahamas

Players and coaches aside, the biggest factor in the outcome of the Bahamas bowl may be Mother Nature, and the betting market has reflected that.

Winds near 30 mph are expected throughout the game — with gusts even reaching near 40 — which has this total on the decline (57 to 51.5).

Sharp bettors look to be taking advantage of that weather forecast, but it’s difficult to pinpoint just how much direct effect they’ve had on the total since it would have fallen anyway. The more interesting activity — at least from a sharp betting perspective — has come on the spread.

Buffalo opened as a 4.5-point favorite in this matchup, and has been the overwhelming favorite bet among public bettors as well. Seventy-six percent have taken the Bulls, a figure that has held pretty steady even as the spread has risen a few points.

The rise from -4.5 to -6.5 doesn’t tell the whole story, however.

This number has briefly reached the key touchdown spread (Buffalo -7) on a couple of occasions, which is where it has received its greatest reaction from sharp bettors.

A total of six Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of professional action in the market, have hit Charlotte — all of which have came at +7 or higher.

The 49ers have also generated 29% of money on their 24% backing, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are behind them.

Sharp angle: Charlotte (moved from +7 to +6.5)

Frisco Bowl: Kent State vs. Utah State

7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN | Frisco, Texas

Like the role that weather is playing in the Bahamas Bowl, player uncertainty leading up to the Frisco Bowl made reading the line movement on this game difficult from a sharp-action perspective.

That changed once Utah State head coach Gary Andersen announced that quarterback Jordan Love would in fact play in his final game as an Aggie.

Sharps had been finding value on Kent State throughout the week, a play that was probably heavily influenced by Love’s questionable status. And as a result, Utah State fell from around -9 through the key number of -7 to as low as -4.5.

Now that Love has been confirmed to play, the line has changed course, though it hasn’t nearly reached its opener.

In fact, it hasn’t even made it back to the all-important -7 number.

Utah State’s backing has been on the rise into game day, as it has now taken back the majority at 54%. Fifty-eight percent of the money, however is still behind Kent, serving as an indication that sharper bettors still feel a touchdown spread is too much.

The clearer one-sided sharp activity, though, has come on the over/under, which didn’t see much of an effect from the player uncertainty out of Utah State. In fact, it was on the rise even through the earlier parts of the week despite all three players in question being on the offensive side of the ball.

That movement has continued into Friday, as the total is now up to 67.5 from an opener of 64, and some shops have ticked up to 68.

Sixty percent of bettors have taken the over, but while it’s not a contrarian spot, those bettors have accounted for 73% of money, and four SI Bet Signals have confirmed sharp action on the over to drive up this line.

Sharp angles: Kent State (moved from +9 to +6.5), Over (moved from 64 to 67.5)

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