Stuckey & Wilson: 2 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 10
Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Charlotte QB Chris Reynolds and RB Benny LeMay
- Don't forget to sprinkle some moneyline underdogs into your college footballs picks for Week 10.
- Our college football experts give their two favorite moneyline underdog bets for Saturday.
As we do each week on The Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs on Saturday’s college football slate.
Welp, we split AGAIN last week, which makes it eight splits in nine weeks. The sweep will eventually come.
For Week 10, we’re both going with mid-afternoon games that will kick around the same time. I’m going with a Power 5 home dog while Collin is rolling with a Group of 5 home pop. If you’re feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays a little over 7-1.
- 2018: 16-28 +3.95 units
- 2019: 8-10 +2.95 units
Wilson: Charlotte + 140
- Spread: Middle Tennessee -3.5
- Over/Under: 65
- Location: Charlotte, NC
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN3
Trailing 35-21 against North Texas at the end of the third quarter last week, things looked grim for the home 49ers as a 4-point underdog.
But Charlotte made a miraculous comeback thanks to three-straight touchdowns, two which came on explosive plays.
Behind the legs of star back Benny LeMay, Charlotte now ranks No. 9 in Rush Explosiveness. It also can hit big plays through the air as quarterback Chris Reynolds leads an aerial attack that sits at a not-so-shabby 37th in Pass Explosiveness.
The 49ers will look to continue the momentum from last week in another home game against Middle Tennessee in a battle of two 3-5 teams in bowl-survival mode.
The Blue Raiders thrashed Florida International 50-17 last week after trailing at halftime. Terrell West, Jayy McDonald and quarterback Asher O’Hara all had 100 rushing yards on a soaked afternoon in Murfreesboro.
Middle Tennessee took advantage of a Florida International team that no-showed in the second half, but the season statistics do not support a repeat win.
The Blue Raider defense ranks 107th and 113th in Rush and Passing Success Rates, respectively. Their defensive line also grades out very poorly in a number of advanced metrics, suggesting LeMay may run wild.
MTSU also ranks dead last in sack rate, which means Reynolds should have plenty of time to hit big plays down the field in the passing game.
The 49ers defense is nothing to write home about but just like last week, I expect Charlotte’s explosiveness to be the difference at home. Let’s just hope it’s a little easier to get to the window than last week.
Pick: Charlotte +140
Stuckey: Arkansas +240
- Spread: Mississippi State -7.5
- Over/Under: 59
- Location: Fayetteville, AR
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- TV: SECN
Much to the dismay of my podcast partner, I’m rolling with his alma mater Arkansas and head coach Chad Morris, who has never won a game against a Power 5 team.
I’m not happy about it either, but it’s not really a bet on Arkansas as much as it’s a fade of an absolutely reeling Mississippi State team. The Bulldogs have looked lost over the past month in four straight defeats — all by double digits, including one as a favorite at Tennessee.
The quarterback play has been sloppy at best (12 TD/7 INT) on an offense completely void of any passing explosiveness. But the offense (which can move the ball on the ground) looks great in comparison to the defense, which has been a major disappointment.
Mississippi State’s defense has seen one of the biggest year-to-year drop-offs you will see with a Power 5 team. After leading the nation in yards per play in 2018, the Bulldogs sit at 114th in the country this year. They’ve gone from allowing 4.1 yards per play to 6.4, an insane drop. They’re even outside the top 120 in the country in Passing Success Rate.
It’s bad no matter where you look on that side of the ball as they sorely miss all of the talent they lost to last year’s NFL draft.
The Bulldogs have also been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster on special teams. Per S&P, they rank 119th in the country in that department while the Hogs have been average overall.
There’s just something off with this Mississippi State team. And in a week where I didn’t like too many moneyline underdogs, I have no issues fading a team in free-fall mode with a head coach that might already be halfway out the door.
It’s also a potential flat spot for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs will be playing their fourth road game since Sept. 28 with a much needed bye week coming up before a date with Alabama. How much does this locker room care about going to Fayetteville to face a lowly Arkansas squad? The potential for a lifeless effort is certainly there.
Arkansas stinks, there’s no other way to put it, but I’m willing to back them here in a decent spot for no other reason than wanting to fade a team I’ve seen nothing but bad signs from over the past month.
The Hogs could come out and get waxed, which would surprise nobody. But I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Chad Morris get that elusive first Power 5 victory after what I’ve seen from Miss State lately.
Wish me luck because I will be shamed on our podcast if the Hogs don’t bring home the bacon.
Pick: Arkanas +230