College Football Odds & Pick for Friday: Sharps Betting Purdue vs. Minnesota, UMass vs. Florida Atlantic (Nov. 20)
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Of tonight’s four college football matchups, UMass vs. Florida Atlantic may be the worst at moving the needle. It’s on pace to have the lowest number of bets of the four games, and will likely attract the lowest viewership. But there is still one category in which this unattractive game takes the cake.
Per our PRO Report, no other game has more indicators of value tonight, though there are a few battling for second place, including Purdue vs. Minnesota.
We’ll take a look at how the sharps are betting both games below, as well as the other PRO Report signals present.
Note: Data as of 10 a.m. ET.
Purdue vs. Minnesota PRO Report
Thanks to some sharp action, this total has dropped a bit from its opening number. But even after that move, our projections still suggest that the number is too high.
When a line moves away from the popular side (all else staying the same), you can be pretty certain that sharps are somehow involved, and it’s exactly what’s happened here. Despite 55% of bettors on the over, this number has fallen from 62 to a market consensus of 61.
Sports Insights Bet Signals, which tracks and records instances of market movement caused specifically by sharp action, confirm the sharp backing of the under. They’ve triggered six separate cases of pro money hitting the under throughout the week.
Sharp Action edge: Under
For sharps to be betting the under, they (obviously) must feel that the current line is too high. And our model agrees.
In fact, Collin Wilson projects this total at just 53.9, creating significant value at the current number.
Model Projections edge: Under
UMass vs. Florida Atlantic PRO Report
In this case, one more betting value indicator is on the under’s side: history. Along with sharps and our model’s projections, our PRO Systems are also showing a a match for UMass vs. Florida Atlantic.
Unlike the game above, a comparison between opening and current lines doesn’t tell the whole story here. That’s because there has been some sharp action on the over at lower numbers as well.
Sharp Action edge: Under
As for why the sharps may be taking a liking to the under, look no further than the weather forecast. A 17-20 mph wind is expected in Boca Raton, which is certainly enough to catch the attention of our Windy Unders PRO System.
Since 2005, games played in winds of at least 13 mph have hit the under at a 57% rate.
PRO Systems edge: Under
And finally, our projected total is once again considerably lower than the listed one.
At 45.5, it’s suggesting close to a full touchdown’s worth of value at the currently offered number.
Model projections edge: Under