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New Mexico vs. Hawaii Odds & Pick: Sharp Action, Projection, Betting System Aligned on Spread


Darryl Oumi/Getty Images. Pictured: Chevan Cordeiro and Miles Reed

College Football Odds: New Mexico vs. Hawaii

New Mexico Odds +14
Hawaii Odds -14
Over/Under 64.5
Time 11 p.m. ET
TV Spectrum Sports
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Late-night island football returns tonight with a Mountain West matchup, as Hawaii hosts New Mexico at 11 p.m. ET.

The Rainbow Warriors are two-touchdown favorites over the Lobos, and while that’s surely a significant margin, it’s actually smaller than the opening number released early in the week.

That’s in part thanks to sharps backing the underdog, New Mexico. Support for the Lobos has driven the number down down from as high as +16.5 to the current +14.

And that’s not the only reason our PRO Report signals are lighting up for this game.

Note: Data as of 1:15 p.m. ET.

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College Football Sharp Pick: New Mexico vs. Hawaii

In addition to the sharp action, one of our PRO betting systems is showing value on this spot for New Mexico. And our projections agree that this spread is too high.

Sharp Action

New Mexico’s edge in terms of tickets is 52% to 48%. In other words, there’s really no reason for sportsbooks to be shifting the line so significantly, unless there’s something sharp about those bettors.

Sure enough, three Sports Insights Bet Signals — which are triggered by instances of market movement caused specifically by sharp action — have popped on New Mexico, confirming that pros are behind this move.

Sharp Action edge: New Mexico

PRO Systems

If history is any indication, New Mexico is in a pretty good spot tonight.

Following a low scoring output, like Hawaii’s seven points against Wyoming last week, heavy favorites are often overvalued. Our PRO System, Scoring Streak Fade, translates exactly that with a 59% win rate since 2005.

PRO Systems edge: New Mexico

Model Projection

Even though this line has fallen to a key number, our model, compiled by Collin Wilson, still shows value on the Lobos.

Wilson pegs New Mexico at +10.8, suggesting that this is still a valuable betting opportunity.

Model Projection edge: New Mexico

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