College Football Odds & Picks for Memphis vs. Navy: Bet on Plenty of Points
Joe Murphy/Getty Images. Pictured: Kenneth Gainwell.
- The Navy Midshipmen will face a challenge on Saturday when they take on Brady White and the Memphis Tigers.
- White has been impressive throughout the season, but will the Tigers find a way to defend the triple option?
- BJ Cunningham breaks it down and shares a betting pick based on his analysis below.
Memphis vs. Navy Odds
|Memphis Odds||-13.5 [BET NOW]|
|Navy Odds||+13.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-590 / +410 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||62.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS Sports Network|
Memphis looks to get its sixth win of the season when it heads to Annapolis to take on Navy.
Brady White and the Tiger offense have been clicking on all cylinders this year, with their only two losses coming at the hands of SMU and Cincinnati. They will look to light up the scoreboard against the Midshipmen defense, which will be one of the worst they will see all season long.
The Midshipmen are 3-4 and will try to climb above .500 before they meet their arch-rival, Army, at the end of the season. Navy’s offense has been much better with Dalen Morris under center, so the triple option should move the ball on Memphis’ poor defense.
But Navy’s defense has been terrible this season, so it’ll be on the offense to keep pace with White on Saturday night.
The Tigers’ offense has been firing on all cylinders. White is having a fantastic senior season, throwing for 8.5 yards per attempt and 23 touchdowns. His performance has led Memphis to top 50 rankings in both Passing Success and Explosiveness, per College Football Data.
Not only is Memphis lighting up the scoreboard through the air, but it’s also doing work on the ground behind sophomore running back Rodrigues Clark. Clark is toting the rock for 4.3 yards per carry. Memphis returned three of its five starters on the offensive line, so it should be able to run the ball at will against Navy, which is one of the worst teams in the country against the run.
For Memphis, the 30-point mark seems to be the benchmark between winning and losing. It’s are 15-1 since 2019 when scoring 30 or more points. So, I expect the Tigers to light up the scoreboard on Navy’s weak defense.
In the matchup between these two teams last season, Memphis won, 35-23, but was outgained 373-301. The triple option gained almost five yards per play on Memphis’ defense, which isn’t surprising since the Tigers have struggled against the run the past two years.
In 2020, they return most of their starters on the defensive line. That returning experience has contributed the Tigers to an improved rush defense, which has allowed 4.0 yards per carry. However, it’s been really prone to giving up explosive plays, ranking 88th in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed, per College Football Data.
Where Memphis has struggled in 2020 is against the pass, allowing 8.8 yards per attempt. Navy is only attempting 13 passes a game but is third in Passing Explosiveness, so it may try to throw the ball more often out of the triple option against Memphis’ weak secondary.
The difference for Navy’s offense this season has been the availability of Morris at quarterback. When he’s starting, the triple option is clicking on all cylinders. In his five starts, the Midshipmen are gaining 5.28 yards per play and should move the ball on Memphis’ poor defense.
Navy has all of its skill position players back on offense, including Jamale Carothers and Nelson Smith. The fullback duo is running for 4.84 yards per carry this season and is a dangerous combo in the backfield.
Memphis struggled to stop the triple option when these two met last season, so I expect Navy to move the ball effectively on Saturday night in Annapolis.
There is no way of sugar-coating it — Navy has one of the worst defenses in the country. Its defense has looked like it doesn’t know how to tackle this season, which is really shocking for a service academy team.
Navy’s main issues have come against the run this year, as it’s allowing 59 yards per attempt. That has led the Midshipmen to a ranking of 118th in Defensive Rushing Success, per College Football Data.
They haven’t been any better versus the pass, ranking 104th in Defensive Passing Success and allowing 8.2 yards per attempt. The most experienced part of their defense is the secondary, so it’s surprising to see their struggles against the pass.
To make matter worse, three starters in the secondary are questionable for Saturday’s game. White will be licking his chops when he steps on the field.
Betting Analysis & Pick
With how good both offenses have been and how bad both defenses have been, I think we’re going to see a high-scoring game in Annapolis on Saturday night. White might throw for 500 yards and five touchdowns on Navy’s poor secondary.
I have the total projected at 74.73, so I think there’s substantial value on the over at 62.5 points.
Pick: Over 62.5 (up to 67)