College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Oregon State vs. Oregon: Will the Beavers Cover?
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- Oregon State and Oregon face off in a Pac-12 rivalry game.
- The Ducks are coming off a loss to Utah, while the Beavers have won two straight games.
- Doug Ziefel breaks down the matchup and offers up his pick.
Oregon vs. Oregon StateOdds
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | -290 |
One of the most storied rivalries in college football will commence for the 123rd time on Saturday afternoon. It's the Beavers taking on the Ducks in Eugene, Oregon.
No longer going by the moniker of the "Civil War," I'd opt for the name of the game that was used until 1928, which was the "Oregon Classic."
This year's Oregon Classic is poised to be a good one as both programs have put together great seasons. The Ducks were a team that was flirting with a spot in the College Football Playoff until they got flattened last week by Utah.
Still ranked 11th in the country, they will certainly be aiming to bounce back in this one. Though, it will be much easier said than done, as the Beavers have proven they are more than capable to topple the best of the Pac-12.
Oregon leads this rivalry series all-time with a record of 65-48-10, but the Beavers took last year's meeting in a shocker. Can Oregon State win two in a row for the first time since 2007?
Oregon State Beavers
Beavers Bursting Out The Dam
Oregon State's offensive attack is no secret at this point: Give the ball the B.J. Baylor, and let him go to work.
That game plan has worked exceedingly well this year, as Baylor has rushed for 1,200 yards at more than six yards a clip. His rushing efforts would not be possible without the outstanding play of the offensive line, which ranks second in Offensive Line Yards.
Baylor and the moving dam in front of him will have a significant edge in this matchup with the Ducks. While the numbers may show that Oregon has been solid against the run this season, ranking 20th in opponent yards per rush, recent performance showed quite the opposite. Last week against Utah, the Ducks surrendered 208 yards on the ground and showed no signs of being able to stop the Utes, especially early in the game.
While the Beavers do not put it in the air very often, they have been effective when they do pass.
Chance Nolan holds a 72.3 QBR and the 32nd-highest average yards per pass. The pass — more particularly the play-action pass — has been crucial to this offense, as it has produced a number of explosive plays.
The big plays will be there for the taking against the Ducks, as you can see here:
Oregon State has been elite in Finishing Drives, where it ranks seventh, and the Beavers are also excellent on third down. They are ninth in the country in third-down conversion rate.
Baylor and the Beavers will be tough to get off the field and tough to keep out of the end zone.
Oregon Ducks
Ducks Offense is Do or "Dye"
The early-season loss of star running back CJ Verdell was a big hit for the Oregon offense, though it received a spark from the next man up.
Travis Dye has put together a huge season since he was bestowed the starting job. He has rushed for nearly six yards per carry and reached pay dirt 12 times.
Much like the Beavers, the Ducks' offense is run-centric. So, expect carries by Dye to be a frequent occurrence in this matchup.
The Ducks are run-centric not only because of scheme or identity. Their senior quarterback, Anthony Brown, has not been the answer against above-average defenses. His completion percentage against solid secondaries, such as Ohio State, Washington and Utah, dropped significantly.
He will be facing another one with the Beavers. Oregon State's secondary ranks 63rd in coverage rating and 57th in yards per pass allowed. The Beavers have also been both skillful and fortunate in the interception department. They rank 35th in opponent interception percentage.
The Ducks should be able to have success on the ground, as they hold significant edges in both Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards.
There's every reason to believe the Beavers will be ready, however, as they shut down a run-heavy Arizona State squad last week, holding it to 100 yards rushing and just 10 points.
Oregon State vs. Oregon Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon State and Oregon match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 6 | 78 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 51 | 66 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 75 | 26 | |
| Big Play | 44 | 80 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 85 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oregon Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 12 | 87 | |
| Line Yards | 7 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 54 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 86 | 110 | |
| Big Play | 85 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 20 | 64 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 121 | 111 |
| Coverage | 63 | 99 |
| Middle 8 | 17 | 81 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 56 | 22 |
| Plays per Minute | 96 | 61 |
| Rush Rate | 62.5% (15) | 57.7% (45) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Oregon State vs. Oregon Betting Pick
The number in this game is simply too high. The Beavers will be able to run and control this game. They have also shown that they can stifle offenses similar to that of Oregon.
I make the game closer to five, but this game could be even tighter given the intense rivalry. Take the Beavers in the Oregon Classic.
Pick: Oregon State +7 (Play to 6)
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