College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tulsa vs. Ole Miss (Saturday, Sept. 24)
Via Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Jaxson Dart #2 of the Mississippi Rebels during the game against the Central Arkansas Bears at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on September 10, 2022 in Oxford, Mississippi.
Tulsa vs. Ole Miss Odds
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 +102 | 61.5 -114o / -105u | +800 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -124 | 61.5 -114o / -105u | -1400 |
Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country that the market has not yet caught up to. Last weekend they were just 17-point favorites against Georgia Tech, who is among the worst teams in the power five conferences, and Ole Miss decimated them 42-0. While it seems that Ole Miss has been upgraded a bit after that game, it’s still probably not enough.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Golden Hurricane Offense
Tulsa’s offense has been fun this year. They rank 61st in offensive success rate, including a ranking of 36th through the air.
In their three games, Tulsa has posted offensive success rates in the 88th, 86th, and 75th percentiles against Jacksonville State, Northern Illinois, and Wyoming. Out of these teams, Wyoming has the highest ranked defense by SP+ at 71st.
Davis Brin is averaging an absurd 0.47 EPA per pass this season and Tulsa ranks #1 in the entire country in passing EPA per play. If the Golden Hurricane are somehow able to get into a shootout with Ole Miss, it will need to be on the arm of Brin and this high-scoring passing attack.
Golden Hurricane Defense
Tulsa’s defense so far has not been anything to write home about. Against three teams that are much less talented than Ole Miss, Tulsa has managed just the 113th best success rate in the country on defense. They ranked 128th against the pass and 65th against the rush, which could be a good sign against an Ole Miss team that has struggled through the air so far, but then you look at who Tulsa has played so far.
Wyoming has the 113th best offense in the country per SP+ and yet they had a 96th percentile offensive success rate against this Tulsa team. Northern Illinois also had a 69th percentile offensive success rate output and FCS opponent Jacksonville State still managed a 44th percentile performance.
When you take into account the level of athlete that Ole Miss has on their offense as compared to these teams, I don’t see how Tulsa will be able to slow down this offense on Saturday.
Ole Miss Rebels
Rebels Offense
The main question coming into this season was around how the Rebels would replace quarterback Matt Corral. While we have yet to see definitive proof against a tough opponent, it appears that Jaxson Dart has won this job and is running with it. SP+ ranks the Rebels as the 13th best offense in the country. Ole Miss currently ranks 32nd in offensive success rate, led by their 22nd ranked rushing attack.
This potent ground attack has been led by Zach Evans. The transfer running-back from TCU has 31 carries this season for 196 yards and is averaging 0.07 EPA per play. Stopping Evans will be tough for this mediocre Tulsa defense.
Rebels Defense
Ole Miss’ defense has not been quite as strong as their offense so far. It ranks 57th in defensive success rate so far this season, coming in at 14th and 99th respectively in rushing and passing success rate. Even with their woes against the pass, SP+ ranks this as the 11th best defense in FBS.
This Tulsa offense will be the most dangerous that the Rebels have faced thus far in 2022. Georgia Tech’s offense ranks 85th offense in SP+ and Troy comes in at 105th. Tulsa’s rank of 69th is just slightly ahead of the Yellow Jackets’. Seeing as neither GT or Troy had a good offensive day, the odds of Tulsa having one are only slightly shorter, but still slim.
Tulsa vs. Ole Miss Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulsa and Ole Miss match up statistically:
Tulsa Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 115 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 28 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 76 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 54 | 30 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 2 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Ole Miss Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 70 | |
| Line Yards | 40 | 111 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 94 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 46 | 75 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 37 | 106 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 65 | 11 |
| PFF Coverage | 69 | 1 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 67 | 26 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.7 (35) | 20.9 (7) |
| Rush Rate | 45.7% (104) | 64.1% (14) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Tulsa vs. Ole Miss Betting Pick
I don’t think that Ole Miss will be able to dominate this game as thoroughly as they did against Georgia Tech last week. However, Tulsa’s defense isn’t the best that Ole Miss has faced this year and should give the Rebels any trouble unless Jaxson Dart struggles with turnovers. Offensively Tulsa may be able to put a few points on the board, but I believe that Ole Miss won’t have any issues scoring and will be able to stay well ahead.
Most of the market has moved to 21.5 in this game, but you would still be able to find some 21s out there if you shop around. I would take this up to 23.5.
Pick: Ole Miss -21.5. Bet to -23.5
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