College Football Betting Picks: Sharps Moving Cincinnati vs. UCF, Tennessee vs. Auburn Odds (Nov. 21)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Tennessee Volunteers standout Jarrett Guarantano.
If I’ve said it once I’ve said it a thousand times: sharps don’t care about “big” games; they care about value.
But with that said, there’s no rule that says a big game can’t offer value. And on Saturday, three of the weekend’s most heavily anticipated matchups look to be catching the attention of sharps — as well as the other value indicators featured on our PRO Report.
- 3:30 p.m. ET | Cincinnati vs. Central Florida
- 7 p.m. ET | Tennessee vs. Auburn
- 7:30 p.m. ET | Michigan vs. Rutgers
Let’s take a look at how the pros are betting them.
Note: Data as of 3 p.m. ET Friday.
Cincinnati vs. Central Florida
3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
More often than not, when four of our PRO Report signals are aligned on one side of a total, that side is the under. Not the case here, however.
Sharps are in agreement with our experts and projections: this number is too low.
Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of market movement caused specifically by sharp action, serve as our form of measurement for this indicator. And they’ve made no mistake about this game.
Five SI Bet Signals have been triggered on the over since this line opened, with none going the other way as of Friday afternoon. That helps to explain why this number is a bit higher than it was early in the week.
Sharp Action edge: Over
Also pointing toward a sharp backing of the over is the discrepancy between bets and actual money it’s pulling in. While 61% of bettors have taken the over — which is to be expected considering most prefer to root for offense — they’ve generated an impressive 79% of money.
That means the bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps — are landing on the over.
Big Money edge: Over
Making this bet even more appealing, our projections suggest that even after the line move, this total is still far too low. In fact, our model — compiled by Collin Wilson — pegs the total all the way up at 73.1, providing plenty of value at the current number.
Model Projections edge: Over
It’s not just sharps betting the over, either. Two of our top college football experts have also taken the over as of writing.
You can follow all our experts’ picks, and get notified when they make them, by downloading the free Action App.
Top Experts edge: Over
Tennessee vs. Auburn
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Tennessee also has our experts aligned with the sharps. And as indicated by one of our PRO Systems, history is on the Vols’ side as well.
With this line having seen some movement in both directions since opening, the sharp action hasn’t been quite as one-sided. But there still hasn’t been any question as to which side has been a bigger target for pros, especially at the current line.
While Auburn took in some smart money during its brief stints inside the key number of 10, Tennessee has triggered five SI Bet Signals at +10.5 — where the line currently sits — or higher. That’s helped cause an overall drop in the number despite only 38% of bettors taking the Vols.
Sharp Action edge: Tennessee
On the road for a second-straight game, Tennessee also fits into our Road Streak PRO System, which looks to take advantage of undervalued road teams in heavily-bet games (of which this one certainly qualifies).
The system boasts a 226-143-2 record since 2005 — a 61% win rate.
PRO Systems edge: Tennessee
Whether it be a result of the sharp action, historical edge or another reason, our top college football experts are also backing Tennessee in this spot.
Three of them have taken the points with the Vols as of Friday afternoon.
Top Experts edge: Tennessee
Michigan vs. Rutgers
7 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
Michigan’s shaky start has deterred sharps — in fact it’s probably the reason they’re finding value in this game. Their big bets have helped move this line considerably, and our experts have gotten on board as well.
Prior to the season, we probably wouldn’t have expected a 50-50 split amongst bettors for the Week 12 Michigan-Rutgers matchup, but here we are.
Still, though, the 49% of bettors on the Wolverines have done enough to move this line as much as five points in Michigan’s direction. As you can tell, that’s because sharps are among them.
Seven SI Bet Signals have been triggered on Michigan throughout the week, with the most recent even coming past the key number of 10 (at -11.5), pushing this spread much closer to two touchdowns than one.
Sharp Action edge: Michigan
Part of the reason oddsmakers have reacted so strongly to their Michigan bettors is that the 49% backing has generated 88% of actual money hitting the spread.
As mentioned above, that also serves as further confirmation of Michigan being the sharp side, since the pros are more likely to be the ones making the bigger bets.
Big Money edge: Michigan
Another three of our experts have also taken Michigan to cover the number throughout the week, though to be fair, some of those picks came inside the key number at -9.5
To get notified when our experts make their bets, download the free Action App.