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College Football Odds & Picks: Sharp Betting, Projections, Systems for Iowa State vs. Kansas & Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt

College Football Odds & Picks: Sharp Betting, Projections, Systems for Iowa State vs. Kansas & Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt article feature image

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral.

Sharp action has been sprinkled across much of Saturday’s college football slate, but only a few games have come across as major targets for the pros — at least as of Friday afternoon.

And thanks to our new PRO Report feature, we can now filter those few down to an even more select group that are also attracting our experts, matching our betting systems, and offering value based on our model’s projections.

Two games have been standing out with all of the above:

  • 12 p.m. ET | Iowa State vs. Kansas
  • 4 p.m. ET | Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt

Note: Data as of Friday at 5 p.m. ET.

Iowa State vs. Kansas

12 p.m. ET | FS1

Sharp bettors have made their opinion clear on this total. Our experts agree, and our projections, plus a PRO System, give good reason for the pick.

Sharp Action

There’s been no question as to how sharps have bet this early kick. Per Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action in real time, they’ve hit the under on at least six separate occasions at numbers ranging from 55.5 to 52, leading oddsmakers to the current consensus of 51.

Sharp Action edge: Under

PRO Systems

Perhaps one reason sharps are so attracted to this under: the game fits our Windy Unders betting system. Since 2005, games played in winds of 13 mph or more have hit the under at a 57% rate.

This one is projected to eclipse the 20-mph mark.

PRO Systems edge: Under

Model Projections

Even with the mentioned drastic line move, this under is still offering value based on our model’s projections (compiled by Collin Wilson).

He pegs the total at 46.3 providing plenty of edge at the current number.

Model Projections edge: Under

Top Experts

All indications are pointing toward under value, and our experts agree. Three have already bet the under as of Friday afternoon.

You can follow all our experts’ picks, and get notifications when they make them, by downloading the Action App.

Top Experts edge: Under

Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt

4 p.m. ET | SEC Network

A similar situation is transpiring in Nashville, as sharps and our experts are in agreement on the total, and our projection suggests that value remains.

Sharp Action

As this total has bounced around between 62 and 64.5, the sharp action hasn’t been quite as one-sided. Still, though, four SI Bet Signals have been triggered on the under while the line’s been listed at 64 or higher — which it is as of writing.

Sharp Action edge: Under

Big Money

Also bringing out the sharps’ preference to the under, it’s drawn a higher percentage of money (73%) than bets (61%). That means it’s drawing bets from higher spenders — the ones more likely to be the professionals.

Big Money edge: Under

Model Projections

With this number down just a half point from it’s opener, it’s less surprising to find that our model still sees value in the under.

In fact, it projects this total down at 55.4, meaning there’s still some ways to go before the value is gone.

Model Projections edge: Under

Top Experts

Once again, three of our experts are in agreement with the sharps, and backing the projections edge by taking the under.

Top Experts edge: Under

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