College Football Odds & Picks for Tennessee vs. Arkansas: Sharp Betting, Projections, More
Andrew Ferguson/Collegiate Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Velus Jones Jr.
After a week off, the Vols are back. And they’re met not only with legal sports betting in the state of Tennessee, but some sharp betting action on their matchup vs. Arkansas.
Sharps are bettors with long track records of success, so when they bet a game, oddsmakers react. And that’s what’s happened on Saturday’s over/under.
As for the spread, while the sharp action hasn’t been quite as apparent, our PRO Report tool does reveal betting value through our model’s projection.
Let’s take a look.
Note: Odds as of 1 p.m. ET Friday.
College Football Sharp Pick: Tennessee vs. Arkansas Over/Under
Sharp bettors and our model are in agreement: this total is a bit too high.
Sports Insights Bet Signals serve as our measuring stick for sharp action. Triggered by market movement that comes specifically as a result of activity from sharps, they’ve recorded three such instances on the under throughout the week.
With that, the line has fallen from an opener of 53.5 to the current consensus of 52.5.
Sharp Action edge: Under
For sharps to be betting the under, they must be projecting the total slightly lower than the listed line. And we are, too.
Our model, compiled by Collin Wilson, projects an over/under of 50, providing close to a field goal’s worth of value even after the line drop.
Model Projection edge: Under
College Football Projection: Tennessee vs. Arkansas Spread
While sharps have been much quieter on the spread, our model suggests a similar edge on the Vols at their short price.
Tennessee has inched up a bit from a 1-point favorite to -2 across most of the market, but even that hasn’t been enough of a move according to Wilson’s model.
He projects the Vols as 3.5-point favorites, which is a significant edge considering the importance of the number 3 in football betting.
Model Projection edge: Tennessee