College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina: Why to Play Over/Under

Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina Odds

The South Carolina Gamecocks welcome the Vanderbilt Commodores for an SEC battle. Someone's zero has to go, as the victor will earn their first conference win.

South Carolina has dominated this series historically, as it has won 26-of-30 meetings.

The Commodores have been sub-par, to say the least. Coming off of a 42-0 loss to Florida, this matchup against South Carolina is slightly less unfavorable.

The Gamecocks come into this one off of a loss in which they allowed 40 points. This was another case in which South Carolina was simply outclassed.

The Gamecocks have shown some life, even in their losses, so this may be why they are considerable favorites in this matchup.

The only question left is, should we rely on them to cover? Let's find out.

Saturday, Oct. 16

4 p.m. ET

SEC Network

Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt Offense

There is very little to highlight about this unit.

They are the lowest-scoring offense in all of the FBS, averaging only 13.3 points per game. They have more turnovers on the season than touchdowns.

While we can go on about how bad the offense has been, we need to analyze what they did well in their good performances.

Against UConn and Colorado State, the Commodores found success through the air. Quarterback Ken Seals threw for 571 yards and completed 66% of his passes in those contests.

What remains to be seen is if Seals can find success against a Gamecocks' defense that will hold multiple metric advantages over the Commodores.

Vanderbilt Defense

The other side of the ball has not been much better than the offense for Vanderbilt, as it gives up the 14th-most points per game on average. That number is inflated by blowout losses to Georgia and Florida, though.

If you remove those games the Commodores' points allowed average is 28.3. For this matchup, that number is a better baseline for analysis.

What's surprising is that the Commodores' defense will have many advantages, according to what advanced metrics tell us.

They hold advantages in Line Yards and Finishing Drives, and they should be able to create Havoc against the South Carolina offense.

The Gamecocks are nowhere near the elite offenses that have torn through this defense, so the Commodores should be able to get stops.

South Carolina Gamecocks

South Carolina Offense 

The Vanderbilt offense may be amongst the worst in the nation, but South Carolina's is not much better.

The issues for this offense start up front as the Gamecocks rank 106th in Line Yards and 107th in pass blocking.

The offensive line problems have hurt South Carolina's ability to run the ball as it only averages 3.5 yards per rush and is 115th in Rushing Success Rate.

However, this Gamecocks' offense can exploit the Commodores through the air.

Sophomore Luke Doty has played fine since coming back after the super senior Zeb Noland had to step in to start the season. Doty has completed 61 percent of his passes with a 3:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Expect Doty to be able to connect without much difficulty as Vanderbilt's defense is 116th in coverage and 126th in big plays allowed.

South Carolina Defense

This Gamecocks' defense has been the backbone behind their three victories this season. Even including the blowout losses, the Gamecocks have only surrendered 22 points per game.

Some of their advanced metrics pop off the page as this unit ranks second in pass rush and 11th in coverage.

Those metrics spell a lot of trouble for the dismal Vanderbilt offense.

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Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Vanderbilt and South Carolina match up statistically:

Vanderbilt Offense vs. South Carolina Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	117	92
Line Yards	120	107
Pass Success	107	60
Pass Blocking**	119	2
Big Play	108	73
Havoc	34	59
Finishing Drives	120	11
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

South Carolina Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	115	111
Line Yards	106	103
Pass Success	85	105
Pass Blocking**	107	101
Big Play	71	126
Havoc	120	92
Finishing Drives	119	110
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	113	76
Coverage	116	11
Middle 8	125	73
SP+ Special Teams	127	16
Plays per Minute	52	109
Rush Rate	47.5% (110)	55.4% (61)

This is certainly not a main TV game at any venue, but it could be much more competitive than expected.

Both of these offenses are not good, but we have seen each have success through the air this season.

If Vandy can get its passing game going, expect South Carolina to fire back. That may be the more unlikely game script, though, as the Gamecock defense may dominate in this one.

Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina Betting Pick

The spread in this one sits at just over three scores — which is enticing — but with just how bad the Vanderbilt offense is I would not be comfortable backing them.

Instead, the total is the best angle here as the South Carolina defense should shut down the Vandy offense. I also expect Vandy to get its share of stops as well.

The under has hit in six of the last 10 between these two programs and the under has also hit in six of the last seven South Carolina home games.

Early line movement even created extra value for us as it ticked up, so grab it now before it comes back down.

Pick: Under 51 (Play to 49.5)