College Football Odds & Picks for Washington State vs. USC: Where is Sunday’s Betting Value?
Chris Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Clay Helton.
- College football on a Sunday night? Yes, please.
- USC takes on Washington State in Pac-12 action on Sunday night, and Collin Wilson sees betting value on the first-half total..
- Check out Wilson's full betting breakdown with updated odds below.
Washington State vs. USC Odds
|Washington State Odds||+11.5 [BET NOW]|
|USC Odds||-11.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+290/-385 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||68.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET|
College football and Sunday night are two terms that generally are not congruent.
However, Washington State and USC pushed their scheduled game to Sunday night, with the hope plenty of Trojans will clear quarantine protocol.
Eleven players have been in isolation throughout the week for USC, as its previous game against Colorado was determined to be a no contest. The Trojans (3-0) were limited to midweek practices in preparation for the tilt.
On the other side, Washington State has dealt with COVID-19 issues also. The Cougars had games canceled with Stanford and Washington because of a team breakout, which included quarterback Jayden de Laura. The freshman signal-caller is set to return along, with a handful of other Washington State players who have cleared protocol.
Washington State Cougars
Nick Rolovich has just two games under his belt as the new Washington State head coach. The Cougars have already won on the road this season after a trip to Oregon State but suffered a home loss in a non-cover to Oregon.
The story through two games has been de Laura, with 548 yards, four touchdowns and a single interception through eight quarters of play. The Cougars have the highest graded passing attack, per Pro Football Focus, but there is a stark contrast when pressure is applied.
In 59 dropbacks without pressure, de Laura has a triple-digit NFL rating and a completion percentage of 71%. Through 24 dropbacks with pressure, those numbers drop to a 39.6 NFL rating with a completion percentage of 23.5%.
this Jayden de Laura guy might be pretty good pic.twitter.com/O1I5aG8MGS
— Anthony Treash (@PFF_Anthony) November 8, 2020
The Cougars defense was shredded by both Oregon and Oregon State. Washington State enters the USC game with a rank outside the top 100 in Line Yards, pass coverage and Success Rate. There is a serviceable rank in defending pass explosiveness and special teams, but defense will be a monster offseason effort for Rolovich.
The Action Network noted the issues with Kedon Slovis prior to the Utah game, citing an increase in drops and balls thrown away. USC has an Air-Raid offense, and whether these offenses have been under Mike Leach or Kliff Kingsbury, it takes time to get a quarterback and receivers on the same page.
The 2020 season has been pure chaos for an offense that needs to stay in rhythm. Those issues were resolved against a Utah defense full of new faces in the first game of the season.
Through three games, the advanced numbers suggest the hiring of Todd Orlando as defensive coordinator is paying dividends. The Trojans rank top 40 in defensive Havoc, Passing Success Rate Defense, Sack Rate and Defensive Finishing Drives.
All categories have seen a major improvement from the Clancy Pendergast days, although a rank of 113th in tackling implies there is plenty of ground to make up.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Both teams run a heavy dose of pass attack through the Air Raid and run and shoot. What Washington State and USC lack is repetition, as practices have been canceled, games have been pushed and players have been in isolation.
The Cougars have put up better numbers on offense thus far, but USC’s Sack Rate of 34th indicates we may see the freshman on plenty of scrambles.
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As for USC, the offense needs a stable schedule of practices and games for Slovis to be successful. Although there is no reason to think Washington State can slow down any Pac-12 offense, it may take several drives for USC to get in gear.
While our Pace Report for Week 14 has the number in the low 60s, this may be a great spot for a first-half under play. With both off of normal schedules and limiting practices, expect the offenses to need a few drives before hitting fifth gear.
Pick: First-Half Under 35 or better.