Power Ratings vs. Spreads: Biggest Discrepancies for College Football Week 5


James Lang-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Urban Meyer, James Franklin

Sep 24, 2018, 11:37 PM EDT
  • Collin Wilson highlights the biggest betting line discrepancies between Vegas and The Action Network power ratings.
  • Use them to find betting value early in the week before lines move.

Now that the opening lines for college football Week 5 are out, let’s take a look at some of the biggest differences between my projected point spreads and what the books actually posted.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts for all my plays as the college football market continually moves.

Week 5 Point Spread Projections

TAN spread reflects our numbers from Sunday morning, before the books posted their lines.

North Carolina @ Miami (Thursday)

  • Action Network spread: Miami -12
  • Posted spread: Miami -18

North Carolina comes off an emotional victory after an unexpected bye week due to Hurricane Florence. The Tar Heels are still dealing with suspensions, including one to starting defensive lineman Malik Carney.

The Hurricanes switched to new quarterback N’Kosi Perry, who immediately flashed the steady efficiency Miami has lacked under Malik Rosier.

South Alabama @ Appalachian State

  • Action Network spread: App State -12
  • Posted spread: App State -24

South Alabama lost to Memphis by 17 as a 31.5-point dog. The Jaguars were able to throw for 360 yards, and still covered comfortably while turning the ball over twice.

Appalachian State beat Gardner-Webb, 72-7, after having Week 3’s matchup against Southern Miss canceled.

Army @ Buffalo

  • Action Network spread: Buffalo -2
  • Posted spread: Buffalo -7

With an opener of Buffalo -5, the Bulls have taken money up to -7. This is a revenge spot for Buffalo after blowing a fourth-quarter lead in last year’s loss. Army travels to town off an overtime loss to Oklahoma.

Ohio State @ Penn State

  • Action Network spread: Penn State +8
  • Posted spread: Penn State +4.5

Ohio State was released at -1.5 in the game of the year market at SouthPoint over the summer. Since then, Penn State has added only one point to its power rating, while Ohio State has a bigger power-rating adjustment with a 3-1 against the spread mark so far this season.

Oregon State @ Arizona State

  • Action Network spread: Arizona State -17
  • Posted spread: Arizona State -22

An opening point spread of -20 has moved to -22 for Arizona State. The Sun Devils covered in a trip to Washington, and return home where they beat Michigan State.

Oregon State gave up 442 yards on the ground to Arizona, none of which were from Khalil Tate.

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