Power Ratings vs. Spreads: Biggest Discrepancies for College Football Week 6

Oct 01, 2018 7:15 AM EDT
  • Week 6 college football spreads are now settling in after opening on Sunday.
  • Collin Wilson finds value on those games by using his power ratings.
  • Here are the biggest discrepancies between his power ratings and the opening lines for Week 6.

Now that the opening lines for college football Week 6 are out, let’s take a look at some of the biggest differences between my projected point spreads and what the books actually posted.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts for all my plays as the college football market continually moves.


Week 6 College Football Point Spread Projections

TAN spread reflects our numbers from Sunday morning, before the books posted their lines.

Kansas at West Virginia

  • Action Network spread: West Virginia -22
  • Posted spread: West Virginia -29

This number moved all day on Sunday. With an opener of -24, all the action is on the Mountaineers.

Kansas did not pull out the backdoor cover on Oklahoma State, while Will Grier diced the Texas Tech defense in Lubbock.

Texas vs. Oklahoma

  • Action Network spread: Oklahoma -13
  • Posted spread: Oklahoma -7

The opening spread of Texas +9 was quickly gobbled up by bettors looking to back Tom Herman. The Longhorns coach is becoming legendary in the underdog role, dating back to his days as the Houston head coach.

Herman is 11-1 ATS and 8-4 straight-up as an underdog since becoming a head coach in 2015.

Notre Dame at Virginia Tech

  • Action Network spread: Virginia Tech +11
  • Posted spread: Virginia Tech +5

The Action Network power ratings do not take into consideration situational spots, like the Irish might have after crushing Stanford.

The Hokies rebounded nicely against Duke with quarterback Ryan Willis under center after losing Josh Jackson for the season.

Tulsa at Houston (Thursday)

  • Action Network spread: Houston -13.5
  • Posted spread: Houston -17

The Golden Hurricanes have been a bit of a tough watch if you value ball protection. Tulsa ranks 128th in turnover margin, and isn’t generating much havoc on the defensive side of the ball.

Tulsa does have a defense that is 11th in red zone defense. With Philip Montgomery announcing the quarterback position is wide open, the turnover ratio can only improve.

Syracuse at Pitt

  • Action Network spread: Pitt +3
  • Posted spread: Pitt +6

Syracuse may have a hangover of its own after leaving it all out on the field against Clemson. Leading 16-7 at the half, the Orange saw the Tigers defense turn it up a notch.

On the flip side of this game in Week 6, Pitt was boat raced by Central Florida.

From the surface, backing a Syracuse team that took Clemson to the limit while fading a Pitt team that lost to UCF would be the general ideology behind the Syracuse money on Sunday.

Credit:

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Herman

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