College Football Week 1 PRO Report: Sharp Action, Power Ratings Edges, Expert Picks for Saturday, Sept. 5

College Football Week 1 PRO Report: Sharp Action, Power Ratings Edges, Expert Picks for Saturday, Sept. 5 article feature image
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Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Asher O’Hara.

  • Our new PRO Report integrates Sports Insights Bet Signals, ticket-vs-money percentages, expert picks and model projections to highlight the biggest betting edges of the day.
  • Saturday's College Football Week 1 PRO Report highlights two games to target today: Middle Tennessee vs. Army and Arkansas State vs. Memphis.
  • Read on for a complete breakdown on each of our PRO Report indicators for those two games, including odds and recommendations for your Saturday College Football betting card.

While it’s almost microscopic in comparison to the giant slates we associate with a standard college football Saturday, the docket still features multiple games, which, at this point, is something to celebrate.

Obviously, it’s also something to bet on. And based on our brand new PRO Report, a pair of games are attracting action from sharp bettors in alignment with our college football experts …

  • Middle Tennessee vs. Army (1:30 p.m. ET)
  • Arkansas State vs. Memphis (8 p.m. ET)

Odds, percentages and screenshots as of 8 p.m. ET.


Middle Tennessee State vs. Army PRO Report

PRO Report angle: Middle Tennessee State

Sharp Action

Army opened as a 5.5-point favorite in this game, so the line fall to -3.5 even with 70% of bettors taking the Black Knights should give you a pretty good idea of which side the sharps are on.

And serving as added confirmation, a Sports Insights Bet Signal — an indicator of sharp action causing a market-wide line move — was triggered on Middle Tennessee during the week.

Big Money

As mentioned, Army has dominated the ticket count in this game. But even though Middle Tennessee is getting less than a third of the bets hitting the spread, the MTSU bettors have generated 61% of actual money.

Of course, big bets can technically come from anyone. But seeing as how professional bettors do this for a living, they are more likely to be higher spenders than the average Joe.

In other words, today’s bet-vs.-money split is another pretty strong indicator of sharp action on the underdog.

Model Projections

Our power ratings — compiled by Collin Wilson — suggest that this game should be listed at Army -1.5. And given the importance of the number 3 in football betting, the fact that this spread is currently on the other side of a field goal gives a strong edge to MTSU.

Expert Picks

Three of our top college football bettors have taken Middle Tennessee State thus far.


Arkansas State vs. Memphis PRO Report

PRO Report angle: Over

Sharp Action

The highest total on the slate has done nothing to scare sharp bettors away from the over. After opening around 71 (at most books, at least), this number now sits at 74, even with just 37% of bettors taking the over.

Four SI Bet Signals on the over once again confirm pro action to be behind the move.

Big Money

The 37% of bettors on the over have accounted for 59% of actual money hitting the total, providing another hint at sharps’ opinion.

[Bet Memphis at +500 on the moneyline at DraftKings]

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