Wilson: Week 7 CFB Projected Spreads and the Games I’m Looking to Bet on Sunday

Wilson: Week 7 CFB Projected Spreads and the Games I’m Looking to Bet on Sunday article feature image
Credit:

Julie Bennett-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derrick Dillon

  • With Week 6 of college football in the books, let's take a look at my projected spreads every Week 7 game.
  • I also pick out a few games I'll immediately be looking to bet (and the numbers I'm targeting) when the spreads open on Sunday.

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 7’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based off my College Football Power Ratings, which you can find here.

When the real lines come out later on Sunday, I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 7 Point Spread Projections

Numbers I’m Looking For

Georgia at LSU

Projected Spread: LSU +10.5
Number I Want: LSU +7 or better

My projected spread will differ from other power ratings systems, as I do not have LSU’s home-field advantage near as strong as others considering they have covered at home less than 50% over the past 10 years.

As for this game, Georgia still ranks outside the top 100 in adjusted sack rate, while its defense falls outside the top 80 in stuff rate and opportunity rate. LSU can keep this within a score.

Missouri at Alabama

Projected Spread: Alabama -22.5
Number I Want: Alabama up to -27

The Crimson Tide have now failed to cover Arkansas, ULL and Texas A&M. Nick Saban was not pleased with the defense after the Razorback game, and there should be improved focus on that side of the ball this week.

Offensively, Alabama should have one of its best days of the year. Missouri ranks 112th against passing explosiveness and 129th in adjusted sack rate.

Miami at Virginia

Projected Spread: Virginia +6.5
Number I Want: Virginia +4 or better

Miami QB N’Kosi Perry, who has been careless with the football, had two fumbles against Florida State.

Virginia comes off a bye ranking eighth overall in havoc, which should lead to a frustrating day for the Hurricanes’ freshman quarterback.

Situational Edges I’m Eyeing

  • Duke comes off a bye week with travel to Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils previously saw the triple option in Week 1 in a victory over Army.
  • Texas comes off an underdog rivalry victory in a possible hangover situation to host Baylor
  • After beating LSU in the Swamp, Florida may have hangover in a road trip to Vanderbilt. The Gators are heading into a bye week after this game.
  • UAB is in the driver’s seat of the Conference USA West division. They may overlook Rice with North Texas in Week 8.
  • San Jose State may overlook a nonconference game against Army, who is off a bye week. The Spartans have not faced a triple option this year
  • South Florida, Missouri, New Mexico, Wyoming, Iowa, Ohio, Nebraska and UAB are all on back-to back-travel. 
  • Plenty of teams come off a bye week. They include TCU, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Charlotte, Duke, Purdue, North Carolina, Southern Miss, Penn State, Army, USC and Virginia.
  • There are multiple scenarios of teams off back-to-back travel against an opponent off a bye week.  Those games include ULM (travel) at Coastal Carolina (bye), Middle Tennessee (travel) at FIU (bye), and Washington (travel) at Oregon (bye).

A Few Other Week 6 Notes

  • Hawaii quarterback Cole McDonald did not play in the Wyoming game because of an unspecified injury. His status for BYU is unknown.

  • Running back AJ Dillon was out for Boston College in Week 6.  His status for Louisville is unknown.
  • Wide receiver Anthony Johnson did not record a catch for Buffalo in Week 6, although he was listed as probable.
  • Quarterback Ty Gangi was ruled out for Nevada before kick with Fresno State. His status for Boise State is unknown.

  • Quarterback Jake Bentley missed Week 6 for South Carolina. His status for Texas A&M is unknown.
  • Quarterback Armani Rogers is out 6-8 weeks for UNLV. My power ratings have been adjusted, but I might lower the Rebels even more if Week 6 numbers repeat.

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