Wilson: Week 8 CFB Projected Spreads and Games I’m Looking to Bet on Sunday

Wilson: Week 8 CFB Projected Spreads and Games I’m Looking to Bet on Sunday article feature image
Credit:

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Easop Winston

  • Collin Wilson uses his power ratings to project every Week 8 college football point spread.
  • Use them to find value when the odds open on Sunday afternoon.
  • He also lists a handful of games he's looking to bet immediately once they're posted.

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 8’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based off my College Football Power Ratings, which you can find here.

When the real lines come out later on Sunday, I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 8 Point Spread Projections

Numbers I’m Looking For

Tulsa at Arkansas

Projected Spread: Arkansas -5.5
Number I Want: Arkansas -7 or better

The hunger for the Razorbacks’ first FBS win continues against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have covered against Houston and South Florida in consecutive weeks, despite getting some poor efficiency at the quarterback position. Tulsa’s offense is outside the S&P+ top 100 and will have plenty of issues with a hungry, battle-tested Arkansas squad.

Mississippi State at LSU

Projected Spread: Mississippi State +6
Number I Want: Mississippi State +3 or better

The Bulldogs come to Baton Rouge off a bye week, while the Tigers are off two physical games in a row with Florida and Georgia. Mississippi State goes only as far as its rush offense with Nick Fitzgerald will take it, as the Bulldogs rank in the top five in the nation in opportunity and stuff rate.  LSU’s defense ranks outside the top 60 in those categories, and should have issues in the trenches in Week 8.

Oregon at Washington State

Projected Spread: Washington State +3
Number I Want: Washington State PK or better

Washington State comes off a bye week to host an Oregon team off a massive Pac-12 victory against Washington. More importantly, the Cougars have one of the best pass defenses in the nation, ranking top 25 in efficiency, pass completion percentage against and sack rate.

Situational Edges I’m Eyeing

  • Virginia may be on hangover alert at Duke after beating Miami as an underdog.  Bryce Perkins was limited to just 92 yards passing and threw three interceptions against the Hurricanes.
  • Miami of Ohio travels to Army in a nonconference sandwich spot. The RedHawks have not faced a triple-option offense this season and have a massive MAC East showdown with Buffalo in Week 10.
  • Appalachian State must beat Georgia Southern in Week 9 to win the Group A division of the Sun Belt. The Mountaineers could overlook ULL this week with practice preparation centered on the triple option.
  • Western Michigan, Akron, Houston, Minnesota, Georgia Southern, Arizona, Air Force and Colorado are all on back-to back-travel. 
  • Stanford at Arizona State, N.C. State at Clemson, Wake Forest at Florida State, and SMU at Tulane are teams facing each other off a bye week. The remaining list of teams off a bye includes Georgia State, Kentucky, UTEP, Florida Atlantic, Oregon State, UConn, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Kansas and UMass.

A Few Other Week 8 Notes

  • Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a knee sprain before Alabama’s Week 7 against Missouri. That injury was aggravated and Tagovailoa left the game against the Tigers. His status for Tennessee on Saturday is unknown

  • Quarterback Khalil Tate was removed from Arizona’s game after re-injuring his ankle.
  • Running back AJ Dillion was ruled out for Boston College against Louisville.
  • Temple running back Ryquell Armstead was out against Navy.

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