College Football Schedule, Week 4: Best Games to Watch Based on Vegas Data

Sep 22, 2018 7:34 AM EDT
  • We've assembled a ranking of the best college football games to watch for Week 4 based on Vegas data.
  • Our formula factors in the spread, over/under, our power ratings and more.
  • We have a wealth of Vegas data on our site, as well as proprietary metrics to measure how good teams are to help us out.

We get it. You’re an avid college football fan, and you like spreading bets across a variety of games. But then you plop down on your couch with a beer at noon to start your all-day binge, and you have remote anxiety. Should you watch Wisconsin-Iowa or Oregon-Stanford? Or will the best game actually be between TCU and Texas?

Thankfully, here at The Action Network, we have a solution to your conundrum. We have a wealth of Vegas data on our site, as well as proprietary metrics to measure how good teams are, and thus we can put some data behind the games that should capture your attention. Remote anxiety, be gone.

Using four factors, we’ll rank each game on a watchability scale each week:

  1. The spread: A closer spread is better. Who cares about that 40-point blowout?
  2. The total: Maybe you’re a maniac and like watching 3-0 SEC slugfests, but let’s assume that high-scoring games are preferred.
  3. How good the teams are: Using our proprietary metric, we’ll give more weight to, ya know, the good teams.
  4. Public betting data: We have a ton of data on which teams the public is backing, so we’ll factor that in, too.

And there you have it. The Action Network weekly Watchability Ratings.

Week 4 College Football Watchability Ratings

Let’s run through some of the top games and then I’ll post a table at the bottom with all of the games and where they rank:

1. Georgia at Missouri

  • Georgia -14.5
  • Over/under: 65
  • 12 p.m. ET | ESPN

This game takes the top spot largely because of the betting data. Georgia is the biggest public darling of the week, getting 86% of the tickets as of Friday evening, and this game is the most-bet affair of Week 4. It features two excellent teams, and Missouri could definitely give Georgia a run for its money at home behind Heisman-hopeful QB Drew Lock.


>> All odds as of 7 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college football odds and track your bets


2. Texas A&M at Alabama

  • Alabama -26
  • Over/under: 61
  • 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS

This game has the highest combined power rating, although it somehow still boasts a huge 26-point spread. Those Crimson Tide.

The public is interested in this game, of course — it’s the third-most bet affair this weekend — and it boasts a reasonable total of 61 points. And hey, maybe you’ll get to see Tua Tagovailoa play three quarters this week!

3. Stanford at Oregon

  • Stanford -2.5
  • Over/under: 56.5
  • 8 p.m. ET | ABC/WatchESPN

We finally get a tight spread here at just 2.5 points in favor of the visiting Cardinal. Stanford is the road favorite public darling here, and bettors are quite interested in this one, as we’re counting over 7,000 tickets on our live odds page. This is definitely the prime time game to watch.

4. TCU at Texas

  • TCU -3
  • Over/under: 47.5
  • 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX

Ah, the battle for Texas. We have another short road dog in the Horned Frogs, who definitely seem to get up for their in-state rival. According to our betting guide, TCU has won five of six conference matchups since joining the Big 12 in 2012.

TCU has racked up four straight wins by an average of 30 points per game. Can the Longhorns keep it close at home?

5. Notre Dame at Wake Forest

  • Notre Dame -7
  • Over/under: 59
  • 12 p.m. ET | ABC/WatchESPN

If for nothing else, watch for Greg Dortch, who is almost a mythical figure at this point on our Action Network Colleges podcast with Stuckey and Collin Wilson. I get it — the dude is electric.

Notre Dame has been playing with fire of late; will the Demon Deacons steal one at home?


The Perfect Saturday

12 p.m. ET: Georgia at Missouri (ESPN), Notre Dame at Wake Forest (ABC/WatchESPN)

3:30 p.m. ET: Texas A&M at Alabama (CBS), TCU at Texas (FOX)

Evening: Stanford at Oregon (ABC/WatchESPN), Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (FS1)

Late night: Arizona State at Washington (ESPN), Eastern Michigan at San Diego State (CBSSN)


All Games

Credit:

Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: D’Andre Swift

Follow Bryan Mears on Twitter
@bryan_mears

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CURR
# BETS
58.5
-8.5
58
+10
51.5
-15
50.5
-15
52
+18
52
-18
68
-13.5
68.5
+14
80
-2
81.5
+1.5
54
+3
53
-3
59
-3
58
-4
53.5
-3
53.5
-5
61
+17
59.5
+17
57
+7
57.5
-7
52
+24
52
-24.5
55.5
+14
55.5
+13.5
58.5
+18
58
+18
51
-17
51
-17.5
60.5
+25
59
-26
41
+14
40.5
-13.5
47.5
+2
47
+2.5
53.5
-8
53.5
+10.5
44
+13.5
44
+13.5
68
+3
67.5
-2.5