Sharp Action Quietly Hitting Georgia State-Troy Spread
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- Georgia State travels to Troy (7:30 p.m. ET), with Troy listed as a 17-point favorite and an over/under of 55.5
- Professional and recreational bettors are taking opposite sides of the spread in this matchup.
While much of the gambling world will be fixated on Colts-Patriots and the two MLB postseason games, sharp bettors are quietly getting down on an under-the-radar Thursday college football game.
No, not Tulsa-Houston. Wiseguys have their eyes on the Sun Belt showdown between Georgia State and Troy (7:30 p.m. ET).
Recreational bettors love favorites, home teams and teams on a roll. Troy (4-1) fits that description tonight. After dropping their season opener, the Trojans have won four in row, outscoring their opponents 163-74 along the way.
The public expects another blowout tonight. But sharps are buying low on Georgia State.
Troy opened as a 17-point favorite at Pinnacle. Despite receiving nearly 80% of spread bets, the spread has either remained frozen at -17 or dipped to -16.5.
Normally, oddsmakers will move the line toward the public favorite in these instances (-17 to -18 or -19), with the goal of minimizing liability and enticing action on the other side so they can balance their money.
The fact that the line hasn’t moved in this direction signals smart money on the road dog.
Using Sports Insights’ PRO bet signals, we’ve tracked five separate sharp money indicators on Georgia State.
This overload of sharp action caused Georgia State to fall from +17 all the way down to +14. Since then, there’s been buyback on Troy, and the line has leveled off close to its opener (-17 or -16.5).
An added bonus for sharps: Georgia State is a conference dog. Historically, dogs playing conference opponents perform much better than dogs outside of conference, as the built-in familiarity levels the playing field, aiding the team getting points.
Since 2005, conference dogs on Thursday nights with either a line freeze or reverse line movement have gone 83-63 ATS (56.8%), with +15.09 units won and a 10.2% ROI, according to Bet Labs.