Wiseguys Picking a Side in Friday’s Florida Atlantic-Central Florida Matchup
USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting Friday Night's showdown between Florida Atlantic and Central Florida (-13.5).
- Using The Action Network's betting tools, we analyze how sharps are betting the matchup.
It took an epic sweat, but wiseguys were able to cash their Thursday night Tulsa-Temple Under play. A night later, sharps are going back to the college football well, this time targeting the spread in the primetime showdown between Florida Atlantic (2-1) and Central Florida (2-0).
The public loves betting home teams, ranked teams and favorites. If an Average Joe is putting his hard-earned cash down on a game, he wants to back the “better” team, especially when they’re enjoying home-field advantage.
Sportsbooks know this and will shade lines, forcing public players to bet overpriced numbers. This creates unique value for savvy contrarian bettors to bet against ranked teams and back road teams and underdogs.
>> All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET. Check out Sports Insights’ Bet Signals to track sharp action for college football’s entire Week 4 slate.
Friday is a perfect example of this public bias at work.
Central Florida, ranked 16th overall, opened as a 13.5-point home favorite against unranked Florida Atlantic. Public bettors see a blowout, but not the wiseguys.
Despite receiving 72% of spread bets, the UCF line has remained frozen at -13.5. Typically, if a team gets that much heavy public support the oddsmakers will adjust the line to -14 or -15 to balance their risk and entice betting on the other side. The fact that this hasn’t happened is evidence of wiseguy liability on Lane Kiffin’s FAU Owls.
FAU is contrarian in a heavily bet Friday night game and enjoys a profitable bets vs. dollars discrepancy– the Owls are only getting 28% of bets but 40% of dollars, another sign of smart money in their favor.
According to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, four separate sharp money indicators have come in on FAU. Sharps hit FAU +14.5 at SIA, +13 at ABC, +13.5 at JustBet and +13 at CRIS.
The public will be rooting for UCF tonight, but wiseguys are banking on Kiffin’s Boys to keep it close.
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