Saturday College Football Bowl Game Sharp Betting Picks: Pros Hitting UAB vs. Appalachian State, 3 Other Games

Saturday College Football Bowl Game Sharp Betting Picks: Pros Hitting UAB vs. Appalachian State, 3 Other Games article feature image
Credit:

Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: UAB Blazers head coach Bill Clark.

  • Sharp bettors have made moves on four of Saturday's bowl games, including the New Orleans Bowl between UAB and App State.
  • The tools at the The Action Network help reveal how pros are betting the Saturday slate.

After a two-game warmup slate on Friday, Saturday's six-gamer really puts bowl season into full swing. And having more than a week of availability in the betting market has allowed Saturday's games plenty of time for sharps to shape lines.

Four games in particular, including the night-capping New Orleans Bowl have seen some significant action from sharp bettors.


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New Mexico Bowl: Central Michigan vs. San Diego State

2 p.m. ET | ESPN | Albuquerque, N.M.

There's not a whole lot more to be said about the sharp angle in this game that can't simply be gathered from the line movement and betting percentages.

As will be the case for most games this bowl season, the favorite (San Diego State) is attracting a pretty heavy majority of bettors (68%). Despite that, this line has made a pretty significant move against the Aztecs, falling from from an opener of -4.5 down to -3 at most shops.

While a move against the public side is almost always going serve as a sign of sharp action, it's especially evident in this case given the importance of the numbers in this spread range. Four is a pretty common scoring margin in its own right, but the move to the even more common 3-point spread says a lot about sharps' confidence in the Chippewas.

As of Friday afternoon, one Sports Insights Bet Signal — an indicator of smart money causing a market-wide line move — has been triggered on Central Michigan at +4.

Sharp angle: Central Michigan (moved from +4.5 to +3)

Boca Raton Bowl: SMU vs. Florida Atlantic

3:30 p.m. ET | ABC | Boca Raton, Fla.

Sharps' activity on this over/under has likely been a result of the weather forecast expected in Boca Raton. Average wind speeds of 17 to 18 mph are projected throughout the game, which historically bodes well for the under, so you could probably guess which bet sharps are making …

Seven Sports Insights' Bet Signals have hit the under since it opened at 72, which, along with the forecast (which would've moved the number at least somewhat on its own) has played at least some role in the line falling all the way to 64.5.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 72 to 64.5)

Camellia Bowl: Florida International vs. Arkansas State

5:30 p.m. ET | ESPN | Montgomery, Ala.

Bettors are fairly split on this total, with the over holding just a slight 52% edge. The money landing on the total, however, has not been so balanced.

Sixty-nine percent of actual dollars, along with another three Bet Signals, have hit the under, and the line movement has reflected that.

While it has remained the second-highest total on the slate, this number has dropped from 63 to 60.5 since opening.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 63 to 60.5)

New Orleans Bowl: UAB vs. Appalachian State

9 p.m. ET | ESPN | New Orleans, La.

For the most part, Saturday's spreads are of the one-score variety. This one … is not.

But even laying more than two touchdowns hasn't deterred most bettors from backing the 20th-ranked Mountaineers. Seventy-seven percent of bets have landed on App State, but you wouldn't know it from the way this line has moved.

The 23% backing of UAB has generated 45% of actual money being wagered, and a Sports Insights Bet Signal has confirmed sharps to be taking the points rather than laying them.

As a result, the spread has dropped through the key number of 17.

Sharp angle: UAB (moved from +17.5 to +16.5)

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