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College Football Sharp Betting, Projections, Expert Picks for Week 8

College Football Sharp Betting, Projections, Expert Picks for Week 8 article feature image

Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Pooka Williams

I may have mentioned on a couple occasions that sharps betting last week’s Georgia-Alabama matchup was just coincidence. In other words, they were betting it because they saw value, not because it was a big game.

In fact, they pretty much don’t care about the latter factor whatsoever. And this week’s PRO Report is proof of just that.

Sure, the Week 8 slate doesn’t have a matchup of the No. 2 and No. 3 teams in the country to offer anyway, but the games attracting sharp bettors this week are still pretty far down the interest-piquing list.

So without further ado, here’s how sharps are betting Kansas vs. Kansas State, Tulane vs. Central Florida and Houston vs. Navy. You’ll also find a few spots in which our experts and model projections have aligned with the pros.

*Data as of Friday at 2 p.m. ET.

Kansas vs. Kansas State

12 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1

Sharp bettors have been bringing this intrastate Big 12 total down throughout the week, and according to our model’s projections, there’s good reason for that — enough reason to attract our college football experts as well.

Sharp Action

Opening totals for this game came in as high as 54.5. Now they’re almost a full touchdown lower, and we have sharps to thank for much of that.

Sports Insights Bet Signals have recorded four steam moves on this under since this line opened. Steam refers to a heavy dose of money hitting the same side of a bet over a very short period of time, causing a sudden, market-wide shift, and it’s a strong indication of sharp action.

Sharp Action edge: Under

Model Projections

According to our college football projections, compiled by Collin Wilson, there’s good reason for sharps to be so attracted to this under. He pegs the total at 43.1, which implies there’s still value in this number even after the huge move that’s already taken place.

Model Projections edge: Under

Top Experts

Our college football experts are finding value on a low-scoring game as well. As of writing, two of our top CFB bettors have taken the under.

Top Experts edge: Under

Tulane vs. Central Florida PRO Report

2 p.m. ET | ESPN2

A low total in Kansas brought sharps to the under, but in Central Florida it’s just the opposite.

Sharp Action

The 10-touchdown total hasn’t scared away sharp bettors, and in fact they’ve helped raise the number to 72, as evidenced by the five SI Bet Signals they’ve triggered along the way.

Sharp Action edge: Over

Big Money

On top of the Bet Signals, the sharp side of this matchup has also been brought to light by the discrepancy between the percentage of bets and money landing on the over.

While it’s drawn 49% of actual tickets, it’s accounted for 69% of the money hitting the total, meaning it’s attracting bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps.

Big Money edge: Over

Model Projections

Once again, our model is suggesting there’s still a bit of value to be had on this over/under, with a projected total of 74.7.

Model Projections edge: Over

Houston vs. Navy PRO Report

3:30 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network

Rounding out the three-game card, it’s … another total. Sharps have been going back to the under for Houston-Navy, with our model again right beside them.

Sharp Action

The open-to-current line movement continues to be indicative of the sharp side in this game, as pro bettors on the under have brought oddsmakers from an early 58.5-point total down to 55.5.

To confirm that, Sports Insights Bet Signals have been triggered five times on the under.

Sharp Action edge: Under

Big Money

The bet-vs.-money discrepancy backs up the sharp side again here, with the under generating 77% of money on just 56% of bets at the time of writing.

Big Money edge: Under

Model Projections

And following the recurring theme, our model is still showing value on the under even after the line shift, projecting the total at 51.7.

Model Projections edge: Under

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