College Football Sharp Action, Big Bets & Model Projections (Week 3): Navy vs. Tulane, Miami vs. Louisville
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Micale Cunningham
Even as postponements and cancellations continue to be a big part of the 2020 college football conversation, there’s still plenty of pickings on Week 3’s Saturday slate.
As of Friday afternoon, 19 games are scheduled to kick off, which means our new PRO Report feature has been going to work to easily bring you the games offering value.
Here are a pair that have landed sharp action, big bets and model projection edges throughout the week:
- Navy vs. Tulane (12 p.m. ET)
- Miami vs. Louisville (7:30 p.m. ET)
Check out our new College Football PRO Report, which highlights sharp action, big bets, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks to determine the day’s biggest and most actionable betting edges.
Navy vs. Tulane Odds, PRO Report
Tulane opened as greater than a touchdown favorite in this game (-8), but has come inside the key number to -6.5, as bettors — including sharps — have taken a liking to the under.
Two Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action — have been triggered on Navy since this spread was released, giving the Midshipmen the edge in the sharp department.
It is worth noting, however, that both moves came beyond the key number of +7, which is a much more valuable bet than the one being offered currently.
Sharp Action edge: Navy
As mentioned, bettors aren’t exactly flocking to Tulane in this game. And to be more specific, 61% of tickets that have landed on the spread have gone Navy’s way.
But that 61% backing has accounted for 81% of actual money hitting the spread, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are among the majority on the underdog.
Big Money edge: Navy
Despite being listed as the unlikely winner by the betting market, our 2020 college football power ratings — compiled by Collin Wilson — actually make the Midshipmen 2.1-point favorites in this matchup.
Model Projections edge: Navy
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Miami vs. Louisville Odds, PRO Report
The marquee game of the night has drawn bettors to the under, as evidenced by a 58% backing. But this total has actually risen pretty significantly from as low as 59.5 up to 64.5, and even 65 in some spots.
And once again, sharps have played a key role in the move.
Whenever the line moves away from the popular side, you can generally assume — all else being equal — that sharps involved. Three Sports Insights Bet Signals have confirmed that to be the case in this game, as they’ve been triggered on the over at totals of 59.5, 62.5 and 63.
Sharp Action edge: Over
Big bets have also served as a hint toward the sharp side in this one. Despite attracting a minority of bettors, the over has generated a solid 68% majority of actual money.
Big Money edge: Over
Here’s where things get interesting. Our power ratings suggest that the total for this game should actually be lower than where it sits in the market.
They have this over/under pegged closer to the opener, at 57.37, which could serve as a sign of buyback down the road.
Model Projections edge: Under