Wilson: Projecting Week 10 College Football Over/Unders

Oct 29, 2018 4:55 PM EDT
  • Collin Wilson projects Week 10 college football over/unders to find betting value against sportsbooks' opening numbers.
  • Use these as a guide when placing wagers early in the week or on game day.

College football over/unders are released early in the week and can see heavy movement because of weather, injury or scheme. This column serves as your first look at the projected totals for Week 10’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based on a mathematical projection of yards per play, plays per game, adjusted pace and efficiency. The Action Network Power Ratings for point-spread purposes can be found here.

When the real totals are released (usually mid-afternoon on Mondays at Bookmaker and/or BetOnline), I’ll compare my over/unders to what oddsmakers have posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Discrepancies in weather, injuries and standard passing down/run rate are all factors when investing on a total.

Be sure to follow me on The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 10 Over/Under Projections

Notes on Pace, Injury, and Weather

Ohio at Western Michigan

Projected Total: 62.5

The lack of defense should be astounding in this game. Both Ohio and Western Michigan rank outside the top 100 overall in explosiveness on defense.

The Bobcats rank outside the top 100 in overall defensive efficiency, translating to plenty of Western Michigan first downs and scoring opportunities.

The adjusted pace dictates these two teams like to run on passing downs, but both field one of the worst rush defenses in the nation. With both of these teams hovering outside the top 90 in finishing drives defense, there should be plenty of points.

Air Force at Army

Projected Total: 53.5

If you like a heavy diet of triple-option rushing, then these two teams can give you a lifetime supply. Both Army and Air Force rank in the top 5 in the nation in run rate on standard AND passing downs.

Expect plenty of clock-eating, double-digit drives in this service academy matchup.

Per Bet Labs, unders are 31-8-1 (79.5%) when two service academies meet since the start of the 2005 college football season.

Not only have these unders provided an insane +53.7% return on investment (ROI), they’ve also covered by an average margin of 7.65 points over that span.

 

Memphis at East Carolina

Projected Total: 60.5

There should be no end to the scoring in this game between two teams coming off a bye week. Memphis is top 10 overall in IsoPPP offensively against an East Carolina squad that is outside the top 100 defensively in the same category.

The run rate and finishing drives statistics are what make this an over play.

East Carolina ranks in the bottom 20 in run rate on standard and passing downs, and has a higher adjusted pace ranking than Memphis.

Finishing drives measures points converted past the 40-yard line. Both East Carolina and Memphis are outside the top 100 defensively in the metric. There should be plenty of explosive plays and no resistance to points on each trip into enemy territory.

San Jose State at Wyoming

Projected Total: 40.5

This noon local kick has a forecast of 41 degrees with winds at 25 mph. Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium has a cross-wind orientation, which should be troublesome for the pass and kicking game.

San Jose State ranks in the bottom 20 in run rate on standard and passing downs. With the expected weather conditions, count on San Jose State to continue to struggle with ball protection as it currently ranks in the bottom 10 in the FBS in Havoc allowed.

Credit:

Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Army Black Knights running back Andy Davidson (40)

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