Wilson: College Football Week 6 Games I Bet Right Away, Including UCF-Cincinnati
Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: UCF Knights wide receiver Gabriel Davis (13).
- College football spreads and totals for Week 6 have already been released at some sportsbooks.
- Below I list my projected lines for this week's games and detail the bets I've already made.
One of the best segments on The Action Network Podcast is calling out the box score frauds.
Miami of Ohio had a similar number of plays as Buffalo, but won by two scores with 130 fewer total yards. Special Teams and defensive touchdowns tend to make final scores that do not tell the whole story.
Oregon State +4 was my biggest regular season play in the Action App so far this season. Even with 501 total yards and 9-of-13 on third down, two missed field goals kept the Beavers from winning outright in Week 5.
Sunday and Monday betting activity is based upon the Action Network’s power ratings against an uninformed market moving the spread. A Penn State-Purdue opener at Circa Sports has moved as much as nine points, as our Sunday projections noted injuries to the Boilermakers biggest playmakers.
This article will look at the numbers I have already hit, plus my projected spreads for every Week 6 game so you can keep an eye on lines as they move.
All odds above as of Monday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
College Football Week 6 Projected Spreads
Note: A negative number indicates the home team is favored by that many points; inverse for a positive number.
Illinois at Minnesota -13.5
It’s not often that a quarterback and wide receiver are hurt on the same play. This was the exact scenario in the Week 5 game between Minnesota and Purdue, as quarterback Elijah Sindelar and star wide receiver Rondale Moore were injured at the same time.
Rondale Moore hurt. Needing to be helped off. pic.twitter.com/7TLwMl3kzo
— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) September 28, 2019
The first-quarter play left Purdue at a disadvantage as Minnesota still gave up 414 yards of offense. The Gophers are still a bit of an unknown, sitting at 4-0 with no victories over a single score against South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern and Purdue.
Minnesota is 116th offensively in havoc allowed against a schedule that is outside the top 100. The Gophers rank in the bottom five nationally in rushing yards per attempt, averaging 2.6 yards per carry. Pass protection has not been much better, ranking in the bottom 10 in sacks given up.
Illinois has also had an easy schedule to date, but boasts a top-10 ranking in points scored per red zone attempt and sacks. Surprisingly, Illinois ranks 10th in the nation in havoc rate on defense.
The Fighting Illini have forced eight fumbles and rank third in the nation at tackles for loss. Our Action Network projection make this game Minnesota -12.5, giving a bit of value to an Illinois team that comes off a bye week.
Pick: Illinois +14
Central Florida at Cincinnati
There are vivid memories of last years game between Central Florida and Cincinnati on a personal front. A collection of Twitter’s finest college football handicappers made their way to Aria, where the best Central Florida money line and -6.5 point spread existed.
The goal was simple, get enough money down on the Knights against an overrated Bearcats team. This all while an Aria ticket writer was dealing with runner and an odd request.
Nothing beats a guy pulling multiple 10k bricks out of a manilla envelope at the Aria countrer to bet a UAB game that’s already started
Then says “Oh, just put it all on Texas”
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) November 18, 2018
The Bearcats sacked McKenzie Milton for a fumble touchdown to take an early lead. As the cold sweats fired up, Central Florida would rattle off enough explosive plays to easily cover the spread. The quarterback has changed for UCF, but Cincinnati still has issues facing teams with an explosive offense.
Justin Fields and Ohio State cruised to victory vs Cincinnati at home 💪
Watch the highlights of their 42-0 win in our 60' in 60" ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/9pUF4UN6kC
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 7, 2019
Cincinnati, which has lost 13 straight to top 25 teams, ranks 42nd defensively in 20 yard passes allowed. It is not a stretch to think Cincinnati will give up big plays, and a limited offense will prevent a comeback.
Could havoc play a part in the decision for this game? Central Florida is fourth in defensive havoc, which does not bode well against a Cincinnati offensive line that is 114th in sack rate. The Knights have 47 tackles for loss just behind Ohio State.
Ohio State proved that Cincinnati can be rattled with havoc minded defenses and explosive plays on offense. In addition to what Central Florida brings to the table, Darriel Mack Jr. is back and healthy thus increasing the red zone play package for the Knights.
Pick: Central Florida -4