Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dawson Weber
We’ve got betting trends, analysis, picks and more for every FCS quarterfinal matchup this weekend.
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
Maine Black Bears at Weber State Wildcats
- Odds: Weber State -6.5
- Over/Under: 46
- Time: 8 p.m. ET (Friday)
- TV: ESPN2
A majority of spread tickets are on Maine, and since 2005, it’s not been profitable to fade the public in the FCS postseason. Teams receiving fewer than 50% of spread tickets have gone 70-76-1 against the spread. — John Ewing
Is the Public Overvaluing Maine?
Maine has a legitimate rush defense, ranking second in FCS with a strength of schedule of 36th in FCS. Weber State has a similar strength of schedule, but falls short in almost every statistical category including sacks, total defense and total offense.
However, Sagarin ratings call for this to be Weber State -6.5 on a neutral site. But money on the Black Bears, who have hit their offensive stride as of late, will continue to push this number down. — Collin Wilson
Metrics that Matter
Weber State’s aggressive defense — led by two excellent senior linebackers — ranks fourth in the nation on third down (27.0%). Maine’s offense, which ranks 82nd at 34.7% on third downs, could have trouble sustaining drives.
However, Weber State’s offense has actually performed even worse on third down, converting only 28.7% of the time (111th in nation). Maine has been almost as stout on third down defense at No. 8 in the nation (28.0%).
These are two defenses that also rank in the top 10 in sacks and forced turnovers.
I think this is an under game dominated by both defenses, especially on third downs. In a matchup of two top 25 scoring defenses — both allow around 21 points per game — I think it’s first to 24 wins.
Look out for Weber State special teams, which is top five in FCS in kick return average and successfully faked two punts in last week’s playoff victory. — Stuckey
Colgate Raiders at North Dakota State Bison
- Odds: NDSU -25
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Time: 12 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
North Dakota State is the Alabama of FCS. Winners of 18 straight games, this will be the Bison’s ninth straight quarterfinal appearance.
But just how good is North Dakota State? Well, per Sagarin ratings, the Bison are the 24th best team in the nation — that includes FBS teams.