USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lane Kiffin and Mason Fine
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Florida Atlantic at North Texas Betting Odds
- Odds: North Texas -4
- Over/Under: 64
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS Sports Network
>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets
North Texas and Florida Atlantic have both fallen short of expectations, but their underlying metrics are still favorable.
Can the well-rounded Mean Green top Lane Kiffin’s squad despite being eliminated from Conference USA Championship Game contention? Our analysts dive in.
A Pair of Underachievers
By Steve Petrella
Both North Texas and FAU have underperformed relative to their underlying metrics this season. They each have Second Order Win Totals of at least 1.0, meaning based on their performance, they should have won an additional game.
North Texas is 24th in overall S&P+ and top 40 on offense, defense and special teams, but sits at just 7-3 and 3-3 in conference play.
Can North Texas Make History?
By Steve Petrella
North Texas is having a historic season, at least in the eyes of bettors.
The Mean Green are 9-0-1 to the under this season, and would be the first team since at least 2003 to not have a game go over all season (or vice versa, no team has had every game go over) if its final two contests finish under.
Will this trend continue against an FAU team that’s fallen well short of expectations but still has a strong offense?
Our projections make this total 56, so there’s some value. These are two underrated defenses that have been improving all season, evidenced by their yards per play improvements since September.
FAU plays with pace, but also loves to run the ball (59.1% of plays, 26th nationally) and that keeps the clock moving. North Texas ranks in the middle of FBS in plays per minute, but does throw more often than all but 16 other teams.
A Case for Florida Atlantic
By Collin Wilson
North Texas may have lost any motivation to finish the regular season, evident by a 34-31 loss to Old Dominion last week. The Mean Green have been knocked out of the Conference USA race, but have enough wins to qualify for a bowl. The only motivation North Texas may have for this game is revenge from two blowout losses in 2017. Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic needs a win in its final two games to get bowl eligible.
Running back Devin Singletary has been a workhorse for the Owls, rushing for over 100 yards in six of his last seven games. North Texas’ run defense looks great on paper, ranking in the top 10 in opportunity and stuff rate. But the Mean Green also have the 129th strength of schedule in the nation.
UAB ran for 203 yards on the ground in a 29-21 victory over North Texas. I’ll side with the team that has bowl motivation and the most explosive offensive player in Florida Atlantic.
A Case for North Texas