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Georgia Southern-Eastern Michigan Betting Guide: Triple Option Will Rule 2018 Camellia Bowl

Dec 15, 2018 3:30 PM EST
Credit:

Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kenderick Duncan Jr.

2018 Camellia Betting Odds: Georgia Southern-Eastern Michigan

  • Odds: Georgia Southern -2.5
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Date: Saturday, Dec. 15
  • Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of Thursday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets.


Eastern Michigan was likely one of the last teams selected for bowl eligibility and will face a tricky test in Georgia Southern’s triple-option offense in the Camellia Bowl.

Georgia Southern went 9-3 after re-discovering its option identity following a 2-10 season in 2017. The Eagles have attempted just 109 passes all year and have five players with at least 300 yards rushing.

EMU had a weird year, all considered. It somehow beat Purdue, then lost four straight games by a total of 16 points, then rebounded to win five of their final six. These Eagles have been to three bowl games in their history — 1971, 1987 and 2016.

Odds Movement for 2018 Camellia Bowl

By Danny Donahue

After opening this game at a pick’em, oddsmakers are now listing Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite. Sixty-five percent of bettors and 73% of money playing the Eagles have been behind the line movement.

Perhaps as a result of the low overall ticket count on this game, the total hasn’t seen much significant movement. But 99% of money — a figure that should drop as kickoff approaches — on 54% of bets behind the under have caused the number to fall from 48 to 47.5.

Trends to Know

By John Ewing

It has been profitable to bet underdogs in bowl games. It is more profitable to do so in low-total games since they often feature fewer possessions and thus limits the opportunities for the better team (usually the favorite) to pull away.

Underdogs in games with over/under of less than 55 points have gone 123-102-1 (55%) ATS since 2005.

By Evan Abrams

In 2014, Georgia Southern transitioned from the FCS level to FBS, joining the Sun Belt. Since then, Georgia Southern is 34-27 ATS (55.7%), covering the spread by 2.1 PPG.

In the Camellia Bowl, Georgia Southern is currently receiving over 60% of spread tickets. Since 2014, Georgia Southern is 21-14 ATS (60%) when receiving the majority of tickets.

By Stuckey

MAC teams have struggled in bowls: They’re 23-37-3 ATS (38.3%) since 2005, failing to cover by almost five points (-4.68) per game on average. That 23.7% ROI is the lowest among any conference in our database.

MAC teams are 12-16 ATS in the last five years, 9-9 in the last three and went 1-4 last year.

Georgia Southern Has Special Teams Edge

By Stuckey

Georgia Southern has the much more reliable kicker, as Tyler Bass has been steady all season (16-18 FG, 43-43 PAT). Meanwhile, kicking has been an absolute nightmare for EMU, as freshman kicker Chad Ryland is just 12 of 20 on field goal attempts.

Per S&P’s FG value rankings, GSU sits at No. 2 in the country, while EMU comes in at 121. EMU also holds a significant overall special teams rankings advantage of 14 to 107.

Georgia Southern Has Short-Yardage Edge

By Stuckey