Kansas State vs. Texas Odds & Pick: Is It Finally Time to Fade the Wildcats?

Kansas State vs. Texas

• Spread: Texas -7
• Over/Under: 57.5
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Odds as of Friday morning via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Kansas State debuted at No. 16 in the College Football Playoff rankings, putting Chris Klieman's "rebuild" well ahead of schedule.

Texas, meanwhile, has been hampered with defensive injuries in particular as it tries to rebound from a loss to TCU following a bye week. Things haven't gone according to plan for the Longhorns, with three losses and ground to make up in the Big 12 race.

Will Texas get things on the right track Saturday, or will Kansas State stay in the conference title hunt? Let's dive in.

Model Prediction for Kansas State-Texas

Collin Wilson projects the spread and total for every Week 11 game using his power ratings, available to Action EDGE members, . Factors like weather, injury and specific mismatches can alter the market number.

• Spread: Texas -8.6
• Total: 56.4

This is probably my favorite bet of the weekend.

I cannot get enough of Texas. Our Action Network projection sits at -8.5, prompting a play in the Action Network App at -5.5. I would still play this to the projected number because of key statistical areas that give the Longhorns the advantage.

Off consecutive victories against Oklahoma and Kansas, the Wildcats entered the College Football Playoff rankings at 16.

Meanwhile, Texas head coach Tom Herman comes off a much needed bye week to improve the health of his roster. That is great news for Sam Ehlinger, who may be able to expose the Wildcats' greatest weakness.

The Kansas State defense is 78th in opponent rushing success and 119th in opponent rushing explosiveness. While Texas is not the most explosive team on the ground, it ranks second in first downs and third in third down conversions because of Ehlinger's ability to leave the pocket and convert.

The Wildcats benefited from several Oklahoma miscues in a game they would win just 35% of the time, while Kansas was unable to expose the Kansas State rush defense. Texas is in a prime position to take advantage of a Wildcats defense that is 130th in opponent red zone scoring.

Kansas State has yet to stop any team from scoring once they reach the red zone, and that is an issue against a team that specializes in rushing for first downs.

Pick: Texas -7[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]