Windy Weather Conditions Affecting Louisville vs. Miami Over/Under

Windy Weather Conditions Affecting Louisville vs. Miami Over/Under article feature image

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

  • Windy weather is expected in Miami today, which is affecting the over/under for today's Louisville-Miami matchup (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
  • See how bettors are reacting, and how windy games have performed in the past.

You probably already have an idea of where this article is going from the title. It’s pretty rare for weather conditions to have a positive impact on a college football total, and especially so when those conditions involve wind.

This afternoon’s forecast in Miami is calling for just that, and both oddsmakers and bettors have taken notice.

Odds as of Saturday at 11:30 a.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

An opening total of 53 between Louisville and Miami has been brought down to 49 behind expected wind speeds of 15 mph throughout the game.

Windy games have historically generated a profit for under bettors, and based on the wind direction’s relation to Hard Rock Stadium’s orientation (available with a Sports Insights membership), the gusts should have an even greater impact in this game, as they’ll be coming across the field and affecting every throw and kick no matter which direction the offense is moving.

As for that profit on windy games …

Since 2005 (the start of our Bet Labs database), college football games featuring winds of at least 13 mph have hit the under at a 57% rate, going 508-388-34 over the span.

The theory makes plenty of sense, too. As throws and kicks are more difficult, explosive plays and field goals will be cut down. And as offenses resort to the run game, the clock should be rolling for most of the game, reducing the overall number of possessions and thus, scoring opportunities.

Bettors have caught on to the “windy under” trend, as evidenced by the 63% of bets landing on the under in a game that would otherwise probably have no reason for a public under backing.

But if history is any indication, it shouldn’t matter that the windy under is attracting public bettors. Even in such games with more than 50% of bets landing on the under, the record comes out to a surprisingly more profitable 85-57-2 (60%).

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