Windy Weather Conditions Affecting Louisville vs. NC State Betting Odds

Windy Weather Conditions Affecting Louisville vs. NC State Betting Odds article feature image
Credit:

Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY. Pictured: Christopher Dunn

  • Windy weather is expected in Raleigh, North Carolina today, which is having an impact on tonight's Louisville vs. NC State betting lines.
  • See how windy games have played out in the past, and how bettors and oddsmakers have reacted to tonight's forecast.

On an evening slate highlighted by some games with playoff implications — Oklahoma-Baylor, UCLA-Utah and LSU-Ole Miss, namely — it’s an unsuspecting Louisville vs. NC State matchup that seems to be surrounded by the most intriguing betting angles.

Earlier in the week, Collin Wilson’s unique havoc ratings pinpointed this game as the biggest edge on the Week 12 slate, and our Sharp Report confirmed professional action to be on his side of the point spread.

On top of that, of all the games being impacted by wind across the country today, this one has seen both the most severe forecast and the biggest response from the betting market.

Winds of 17 mph are expected at Carter-Finley Stadium throughout the entirety of this game, which is going to make passing and kicking much harder than usual, especially considering the wind’s direction with relation to the field — almost perpendicular.

Considering the difficulty that should pose to moving the ball through the air, explosive plays should be limited and the clock should see fewer stops as the ball remains on the ground.

As it relates to betting, games with average wind speeds of 13 mph or more have a 507-388-13 (57%) record to the under in our database (since 2005). Increasing that threshold to tonight’s forecast of 17 mph returns a 59% under win rate.

Bettors and oddsmakers are no strangers to the “windy under” trend, as evidenced by the 62% of tickets that have landed on the under. Those tickets have generated 84% of actual money wagered, though, meaning bigger, probably sharper, bettors are also playing the under.

As a result, sportsbooks have responded by dropping an opening total of 60 all the way down to 51.5.

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