Miami (Ohio) vs. Ohio Betting Odds & Picks: Dare Bet the Under in Midweek MACtion?

Miami (Ohio) vs. Ohio Betting Odds & Picks: Dare Bet the Under in Midweek MACtion? article feature image
Credit:

Ron Ostenoski, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Frank Solich

  • Ohio is a touchdown favorite over Miami (Ohio) in the latest betting odds for Wednesday night's MACtion clash.
  • Our projected total is much different from what books are posting, so is Collin Wilson going with or against his numbers given the market disparity?

Miami (Ohio) at Ohio Odds

  • Spread: Ohio -7
  • Over/Under: 54.5
  • Time: Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2

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Miami (Ohio) at Ohio Line Movement

The story of this point spread has been a fairly boring one thus far. Ohio opened just inside of a touchdown favorite (-6.5), and with 74% of bets and 73% of money laying the points, there’s not been much to make of the opinions of bigger bettors, so sportsbooks have simply followed the liability to the current -7.

The total, on the other hand, has seen a bet-vs.-money discrepancy, with 53% of over bettors generating 72% of money. The number has yet to budge, though, as most books are still posting the opener of 54.5. — Danny Donahue

Collin Wilson: How I’m Playing the Over/Under

Statistically speaking, Miami of Ohio is tough to read. The RedHawks boast a top-25 strength of schedule and their non-conference foes include Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State. Miami got outscored, 149-32, in those three contests and that has skewed how the models rate the RedHawks compared to other MAC teams.

Further muddying the picture is the fact that Miami of Ohio is 3-1 in MAC play, but has been outgained in wins over Northern Illinois and Buffalo. In their win over of the Bulls, the RedHawks gave up 309 rushing yards but benefited from a +4 turnover differential.

Ohio ranks 20th in rushing success rate, led by quarterback Nathan Rourke. Teams with a decent set of defensive ends can stop Rourke, but if there’s a weakness on the edge, Rourke can take advantage of it, as he did against Ball State, Kent State and Buffalo.

Ohio’s offense, which ranks inside the top 15 in line yards, should have success against Miami’s defense, which ranks 92nd in opportunity rate and 85th in power success rate.

On the other side of the ball, Miami’s offense is 126th in rushing success rate and 116th in passing success rate, but the Bobcats have one of the worst rush defenses in the country.

Our projected spread for this game is Ohio -7, so this line seems spot on. However, we project the the total at 46.5 points, so it looks like the Under 54.5 carries some value.

I expect Ohio to play to its strengths by keeping the ball on the ground, which should keep the clock moving, and I don’t see any reason to believe in Miami’s offense. Those seem like two key ingredients to a play on the Under.

The Pick: Under 54.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]