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Miami-Wisconsin Betting Guide: Canes Least-Popular Favorite in Recent Bowl History

Dec 27, 2018 2:00 PM EST

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jonathan Taylor

2018 Pinstripe Bowl Betting Odds: Miami-Wisconsin

  • Odds: Miami -2.5
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Date: Thursday, Dec. 27
  • Location: New York, N.Y.
  • Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of Wednesday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets.

Two teams that fell well short of expectations will meet in the Pinstripe Bowl just a year after facing off the Orange Bowl.

Wisconsin’s defense fall apart in 2018, while Miami could never figure out its quarterback troubles and lost four of its last six.

Odds Movement for Pinstripe Bowl

By Danny Donahue

With just 26% of bets at the time of writing, Miami would be the least popular bowl game favorite in our Bet Labs database (going back to 2005) if it doesn’t attract a few more bettors. Just 16% of actual dollars are behind the Hurricanes as well, whose spread is back to -3 after being listed at -3.5 for much of the month.

As if a contrarian favorite wasn’t unusual enough, this game also features a significantly contrarian over. Only 30% of bettors accounting for just 5% of dollars are backing the over, but this total is listed at its opening number at most books.

Trends to Know for Miami-Wisconsin

By John Ewing

Miami ranks seventh in S&P+ defense and has allowed 18.2 points per game. Since 2005, bowl teams allowing 20 or fewer points have gone 141-128-4 (52.4%) against the spread, but there is a sharp split between favorites and underdogs.

Good defenses that are expected to win, like the Canes, have gone 75-83-3 ATS, while underdogs with strong defenses are 66-45-1 ATS.

By Evan Abrams

Duke-Temple and Wisconsin-Miami play bowl games in back-to-back time slots and are the only college football teams coming off their last game where they lost the turnover battle by at least a margin of four. Since 2005, teams coming off games where they lost the turnover margin by at least 4, are 20-9 ATS (69%), covering the spread by 2.5 points per game.

Under Paul Chryst, Wisconsin has only played one previous game even off a -3 turnover margin before and that was back in 2015 and the Badgers won the next game by 10 points. Wisconsin is 7-2 ATS after losing the turnover margin by two or more under Chryst, covering the spread by 7.3 PPG.

Rosier Starting at QB For Miami

By Steve Petrella

Miami’s quarterback play has been a rollercoaster, to say the least. The Canes ranked 112th in S&P+ passing and never found an answer.

Malik Rosier retained his starting job to begin 2018 despite inefficiency to end last season. He didn’t improve, averaging 7.0 yards per attempt and completing 53.5% of his passes with a 6/5 TD/INT ratio. He was replaced by N’Kosi Perry in late September, but Rosier will start the Pinstripe Bowl.

Perry wasn’t any better. He averaged 5.9 yards per attempt and completed 51.9% of his passes. He only completed more than 15 passes in two contests.

Is Miami Prepared for Bad Weather?

By Stuckey

Keep an eye on the weather, as the cold conditions (it’s expected to be in the high 30s in New York) could really favor Wisconsin. This is a warm weather Miami team that would have much rather played in Florida or Texas… or even the Bahamas.

Just take a look at the two games Miami played in the 30s/low 40s this season: at Georgia Tech and at Boston College. It lost both. And the last two bowl games it played in the cold: 2015 vs Washington State and 2010 vs. Notre Dame… also two losses.

Miami Without Top Run Stuffer

By Steve Petrella

Stuckey will get into how Miami can slow Wisconsin’s running game, but the Canes will have to do it without the injured Gerald Willis.

Willis, a second-team All-American, had 18 tackles for loss and four sacks this season.

Strength vs. Strength in Run Game

By Stuckey

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