Missouri 2018 Betting Preview: Putting Blind Faith in QB Drew Lock

Missouri 2018 Betting Preview: Putting Blind Faith in QB Drew Lock article feature image

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Drew Lock

Missouri 2018 Betting Odds

  • To win the National Title: +40000
  • To make Playoff: +4000
  • To win the SEC: +3750
  • To win the SEC East: +775
  • Win Total: 7 (over -125, under -105)

Always shop for the best line.

Missouri 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds

The Action Network Projected Wins: 8.2

Bet To Watch

Missouri Over 7 Wins (-125)

Last season, Missouri beat every team on its schedule that didn’t make a bowl. The Tigers also lost to every team that did make a bowl. A victory over Arkansas and a trip to the Texas Bowl to face the Longhorns was enough to keep Barry Odom employed as head coach.

But Josh Heupel left his position as offensive coordinator for Central Florida, leaving Odom with a decision that would impact quarterback Drew Lock’s future.

Lock had a hand in selecting new offensive coordinator Derek Dooley. This may seem like an odd choice, since Dooley has never been a quarterbacks coach or offensive coordinator. The scheme Dooley will be implementing is called ‘Wikipedia’ and adopts a pro-style attack, upon Lock’s request.

Odom may once again end up on the hot seat, this time for allowing his quarterback to select a coordinator and playbook. But no matter the scheme, this offense is elite. Lock averaged 9.5 yards per attempt with a 44-13 TD/INT ratio last season. He’s also the favorite to be drafted No. 1 overall in 2019.

This throw by Drew Lock… sheesh 😼 pic.twitter.com/PjoYL48vWZ

— Matt Wyatt (@RadioWyatt) March 20, 2018

Odom was a defensive coordinator before his promotion to head coach. But Missouri’s defensive metrics have been in decline for consecutive years, as the Tigers fell from 13th in defensive S&P+ in 2015 to 90th in 2017. There has also been a steep decline in havoc, with Mizzou falling from 10th to 58th overall over the same span.

While the front seven is experienced, the secondary can be beaten by any quarterbacks with a decent passing success rate.

There are some tough games on this schedule, notably Alabama and Georgia. The Tigers should start 3-0 against UT Martin, Wyoming and Purdue. Mizzou should be favored in October over Memphis and Kentucky. With an easy November in store (Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Arkansas) take the Over 7 wins (+100). The juice has since moved to -125.

What else you need to know about Missouri

Generally, Mizzou is thought of as an over team. But since 2012, the Tigers are 20-9 to the under as a home favorite. This should apply against Wyoming, Memphis, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Arkansas.

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