Navy 2018 Betting Preview: QB Malcolm Perry, Midshipmen’s Offense the Real Deal
Navy 2018 Betting Odds
- To win the National Title: +250000
- To win the AAC: +1200
- To win the AAC West: N/A
- Win Total: 7 (over -140, under +110)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.
Navy 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds
The Action Network Projected Wins: 6.1
Bet To Watch
Navy Win Total Over 7 -140
The best part about handicapping Navy is talking about
Keenan Reynolds Malcolm Perry. The Midshipmen have always been able to plug any quarterback under center and produce results in the triple-option attack. Perry did a little of everything last year — from wide receiver to setback — before finally getting under center. The results were must-see TV.
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During spring practices, head coach Ken Niumatalolo has focused on getting Perry to throw the ball to develop a passing attack, which would be quite the development for a Navy offense. There are a number of quarterbacks who have the potential to turn an entire program around this season (Khalil Tate at Arizona, Cam Thomas at Illinois), and Perry is one of them.
When looking at Navy’s schedule, it’s important to handicap the defensive rushing IsoPPP of its opponents — especially with a talent such as Perry heading the potent triple option. Teams that struggle defending rush explosiveness and Passing Down Success Rate will have issues with the Midshipmen (notice the highlight above started with 3rd and 4).
My raw numbers calculated a Navy win projection of 6.1, but after factoring in the following 2017 Rushing IsoPPP defensive numbers — I will go against my power rankings in this specific case and take Navy Over 7 wins at -140.
What else you need to know about Navy
Notre Dame -15 looks low, even though Navy has covered four of the past five years in this matchup. The Irish needed a fourth-quarter touchdown to beat Navy last year, but that game was sandwiched between Miami and Stanford. Plus, Mike Elko’s defense had never seen the triple option.
There are no excuses this year, as Notre Dame has a bye week to prepare for Navy’s option. I project this game at Notre Dame -27, S&P+ at -24.5 and ESPN FPI at -28. I see value at anything under three touchdowns, especially since the Irish are 7-4 ATS off a bye week since 2013.
As for the Perry factor, Notre Dame did a great job playing outside contain against Georgia’s offense in 2017. And despite Elko leaving for Texas A&M, I think the Irish can key on Perry and force him to throw.