Northern Illinois vs. Toledo Odds & Betting Pick: Rockets Have Big-Play Potential Against Huskies

Northern Illinois vs. Toledo Odds & Betting Pick: Rockets Have Big-Play Potential Against Huskies article feature image
Credit:

Christopher Hanewinckel, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ross Bowers

  • Toledo is a short favorite over Northern Illinois in the latest betting odds for this Wednesday MACtion showdown (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
  • Get our experts pick free below, plus insights into how the spread is moving and how weather might affect this game.

NIU at Toledo Odds

  • Spread: Toledo -2.5
  • Over/Under: 53
  • Time: Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN 2

Odds via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.


Northern Illinois at Toledo Line Movement

As a short home favorite boasting a better record, Toledo has generated the majority of bets in this game (69%). Despite that, the percentage of money landing on the Rockets is all the way down at 16%.

The line movement hasn’t necessarily reflected that impressive percentage discrepancy, as the spread sits at its opening number of Toledo -2.5. It’s worth noting, though, that when oddsmakers attempted to increase the line to -3, they were convinced to bring the line back inside the key number.

The total has come down a bit from its opener, and it looks like weather could be playing a role. Double-digit wind speeds are expected to move across the field, which should limit pass and kick effectiveness, and the number has fallen from 55 to 52.5. — Danny Donahue

Collin Wilson’s Pick: Can NIU Stop Toledo’s Rushing Attack?

The Huskies and Rockets had long been the blue bloods of the MAC, with the winner of this matchup annually attending the conference championship game.

In 2019, Northern Illinois is one loss away from losing bowl eligibility and Toledo will need a lot of help to have a chance to win the MAC West.

The Rockets are undefeated at home and were undefeated Against the Spread at the Glass Bowl until Kent State beat the number last week. The Huskies, meanwhile, have just one win on the road this season.

The advanced statistics for both teams suggest that those home-and-away splits may hold true in this tilt. Northern Illinois’ offense hasn’t gotten going this season, ranking 112th in rushing success rate and 117th in converting third downs.

Toledo’s defense has struggled this season, but its main issue has been stopping big plays. The Rockets rank outside the top 100 in preventing explosiveness. The good news for Toledo is that Northern Illinois is one of the worst teams in the country at generating explosiveness.

The biggest discrepancy in the numbers is Toledo’s edge on the ground. The Rockets have the eighth-most explosive rushing attack while the Huskies rank 123rd in preventing explosive runs.

Our Action Network projections make Toledo a 2.5-point favorite in this game,

Toledo should have multiple chunk gains on the ground in this one. Our Action Network projections make this line Toledo -2.5, so I will be more than happy to wait until kickoff for some Northern Illinois steam to hit the market. At that point I’ll look to back Toledo -2 or play the Rockets on the moneyline.

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