Oregon vs. Washington Odds, Picks & Betting Insights: Are Ducks Overvalued?

Oregon vs. Washington Odds, Picks & Betting Insights: Are Ducks Overvalued? article feature image

Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jaylon Reed

  • Oregon is a small favorite over Washington in the latest betting odds for Saturday's game, a near touchdown swing from where this point spread was in the summer.
  • Can the Ducks cure their road woes behind an excellent defense, or is Washington primed for an upset?

Oregon vs. Washington Odds

  • Odds: Oregon -2.5
  • Over/Under: 48.5
  • Moneyline: Oregon -135 | Washington +115
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC

Odds as of Friday night and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Washington was a 3-point favorite in Westgate’s Game of the Year lines this summer, and now, the script has flipped. Its Oregon and its stellar defense that are a short favorite in Seattle on Saturday afternoon.

As of Friday afternoon, there’s a lack of consensus across the market on this point spread, which means books are likely responding to their specific liabilities.

Oregon is listed either at -2.5 or -3 — a significant difference considering the importance of the latter number. The Ducks have also controlled both the bets and money, garnering 60% and 61%, respectively.

The under has also been a popular landing spot for bettors, but sportsbooks don’t seem to care. Even with 71% of tickets currently making up 95% of money on the under, this total has stayed put at 51.5. Danny Donahue

Wilson: Is Oregon Too Conservative?

Plenty of questions come to mind when handicapping this contest. Two questions that I answer with a resounding NO are:

  • Can we trust Oregon outside of Autzen Stadium?
  • Has Oregon maximized Justin Herbert’s talents?

The questions that are answered with a definitive YES are:

  • Is the Oregon defense this good?
  • Is there value in the +3 for the home dog?

Offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo calls the plays for the Ducks and each game has been quite predictable.

Running on standard downs and throwing on passing downs. Oregon has a success rate rank of 44th in standard downs and 80th in rushing.

The refusal to break away from conservative play calling in standard downs kept Cal and Stanford games close, while Auburn was allowed a window for a last second upset.

It also doesn’t help that Oregon has a passing explosiveness rank of 75th, making it an understatement that Justin Herbert has not been maximized.

Look for a coaching mismatch when Oregon is on offense under Mario Cristobal and Marcus Arroyo against Chris Petersen and his defensive coordinators Jimmy Lake and Pete Kwiatkowski.

Our Action Network point spread makes this game Washington -2.5, and the current market indicates the Ducks would be favored by 6 on a neutral field. This is simply too many points given to a Washington team that is 19-1 its past 20 games at home against an Oregon team that has won just 3 of its past 12 games on the road.

Collin’s Pick: Washington +3 or better

Kyle: Ducks Offense Will Struggle

With Oregon’s star tight end Jacob Breeland our for the season, the Ducks’ offense is going to struggle to move the ball against Washington. Oregon moves at a quick pace but I can see the Ducks slowing it down and leaning more on their run game in this one without Justin Herbert’s top target.

Washington’s defense has been susceptible to explosive plays but has a very efficient defense, meaning that as long as the Huskies can avoid long passes, it’ll take Oregon some time to move down the field.

The Huskies’ offense has looked a lot better this year with Jacob Eason and I’ve taken the over in their games a number of times this year to great success. That’s had much more to do with the types of defenses they’re facing though. I expect them to get pretty conservative in this game.

I like this game to get off to a slow start with both offenses feeling their way through the first half. Washington has yet to see a defense as good as Oregon’s so I expect them to try and get the run game going in the first half.

Miller’s Pick: Under 24 1H

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