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Ole Miss 2018 Betting Preview: Rebels Will Pull Upsets with Passing Attack

Credit:

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: AJ Brown

Ole Miss 2018 Betting Odds

  • To win the National Title: N/A
  • To win the SEC: N/A
  • To win the SEC West: N/A
  • Win Total: 6 (over -110, under -110)

Ole Miss is ineligible for postseason play.

Always shop for the best line.


Ole Miss 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds

The Action Network Projected Wins: 7.0

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Ole Miss +22.5 vs. Alabama

When teams are ruled ineligible for postseason play, you expect players to mail in some games, especially late in the season.

But major credit is due to Matt Luke, who guided Ole Miss to a 3-1 record in November, including road victories at Kentucky and Mississippi State. That’s an impressive bounce back for a team that took a 66-3 drumming by eventual national champion Alabama. He had his interim coach tag removed after the season and is the full-time head coach now.

The biggest question for Ole Miss is finding a defensive front seven capable of containing the rush. The Rebels ranked 100th in defensive rushing S&P+, including a 118th in opportunity rate and 104th in stuff rate.

While the defense couldn’t tackle a rusher, getting to the quarterback was the Ole Miss’s bread and butter, ranking ninth in adjusted sack rate.

Defensive coordinator Wesley McGriff has upped the physicality for the 4-2-5 scheme during fall camp. Recent recruits and JUCO transfers will be relied on to provide a better defensive effort than 2017.

But the difference between the defense and offense is night and day. This Ole Miss offense will be awesome.

Ole Miss may have the best wide receiver unit in the nation, led by A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf. Dual-threat quarterback Jordan Ta’amu returns after providing plenty of highlights in 2017 through the air and on the ground. He’s one of just three returning quarterbacks in college football to complete 65% of his passes and average more than nine yards per attempt (min. 100 attempts).

I mentioned last year’s Alabama score earlier, but I’m playing Ole Miss +22.5 on Sept. 15.

I have this game power rated Alabama -11, while S&P+ has Alabama -13.5. More than three scores is way to many points for an Ole Miss passing attack against the most inexperienced unit for the Crimson Tide, the secondary. With no bowl game in the Rebels future, this will serve as the biggest circle on the schedule to start the season.

What else you need to know about Ole Miss

Ole Miss is 15-2 to the under since 2010 as an away favorite. This may apply at LSU and Arkansas through the first half of the season.

More College Football Betting Previews

Click here for team previews on all 130 FBS schools.

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