Overrated, Underrated College Football Teams Based on Week 6 Power Ratings

Oct 02, 2018 8:06 AM EDT
  • Here are the biggest discrepancies between how AP voters, oddsmakers and The Action Network have ranked college football teams after Week 5.
  • Kentucky is among the overrated teams, ranking 13th in the AP Top 25 but 37th in our power ratings.
  • Meanwhile, the Wildcats' Week 6 opponent Texas A&M didn't even crack the AP poll, but sits at 16th in our ratings.

Survival Saturday was the theme of Week 5, as Stanford and Penn State lost in the marquee matchups against Notre Dame and Ohio State, respectively.

The Week 6 AP Top 25 reflected the results of those two games, with the Cardinal and Nittany Lions falling out of the top 10. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes swapped spots with the Clemson, which needed its third-string quarterback (as of a week ago) redshirt freshman Chase Brice to lead a touchdown drive in a comeback win over Syracuse.

Spots 21 through 25 in the poll are fresh entries from Week 5, including the undefeated Colorado and North Carolina State; Florida, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State had been ranked in previous polls.

The Wolfpack gets Boston College at home in Week 6, then will get their chance at Clemson on Oct. 20.

With The Action Network’s Week 6 projections and power ratings in mind, let’s take a look at the most overrated and underrated teams in the AP Top 25.


Overrated College Football Teams

West Virginia Mountaineers

The Mountaineers staved off the Red Raiders with a late 51-yard pick six. Texas Tech lost starting its quarterback Alan Bowman in the first half with an injury that was described as a collapsed lung.

West Virginia still remains on the overrated list with a No. 9 ranking in the AP Top 25. Although the Mountaineers rank among the top 25 in The Action Network power ratings, they would be underdogs to teams ranked lower than them such as Wisconsin, Oregon and Miami.

Central Florida Knights

As mentioned on the The Action Colleges podcast, UCF destroyed Pitt in Week 5 and moved up to No. 12 in the AP Top 25.

There isn’t much room for improvement for the Knights, as the ESPN Football Power Index predicts a remaining strength of schedule for UCF that ranks 81st. The College Football Playoff committee will release their first set of rankings in four weeks, and I fully expect Central Florida to hover between 9 and 12.

Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky’s 13th-ranking in the AP poll is all you need to know when it comes to being overrated.

Texas A&M is a 5.5-point favorite over the Wildcats in this weekend’s SEC showdown, which indicates that the Aggies would be favorites at a neutral site. Kentucky’s 17th overall ranking in Havoc but 114th ranking in defensive stuff rate means that Texas A&M’s efficient offense will be able to move the chains.

Benny Snell needs to do well in this game to stay in the Heisman chatter.

Underrated College Football Teams

Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State fell from No. 9 to 11 in the AP poll, but did not take a hit in our power ratings. Multiple lead changes, explosiveness and James Franklin’s play-calling were all fascinating aspects of the Nittany Lions matchup with the Buckeyes.

Penn State would be a an underdog to six teams in the country on a neutral site: Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. The Nittany Lions’ ranking in the AP poll is still respectable, but currently underrated.

Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M has a chance to prove its underrated title when it hosts Kentucky this weekend. The AP Top 25 doesn’t feature the Aggies, while The Action Network power ratings have them ranked 16th.

non-cover spot against Arkansas needed help from the special teams to win the game.

Texas A&M does rank 130th in the nation in defending explosiveness, but has faced two teams that are playoff bound. The Aggies will be a home favorite against an undefeated Kentucky in Week 6.

Credit:

Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mark Stoops

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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