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Wilson: Projecting Week 4 College Football Point Spreads

Sep 16, 2018 5:48 AM EDT
  • Oddsmakers will release the opening spreads for Week 4's college football matchups on Sunday around 3 p.m. ET.
  • By comparing our projected point spreads to the numbers that the books actually post, you can find betting value before the lines adjust.
  • Oregon projects to be a 7.5-point favorite against Stanford.

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 4’s college football matchups.

When the real lines come out later on Sunday, I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


Week 4 Point Spread Projections

Situational Edges I’m Eyeing

  • Akron took advantage of multiple defensive touchdowns against Northwestern. It gets Iowa State in a non-conference sandwich between Oklahoma and TCU.
  • Florida State will be favored over Northern Illinois. But the Seminoles’ offensive line play is heavily under the microscope, and draws one of the best havoc defenders in the nation with Sutton Smith.

  • Plenty of teams are on back-to back-travel. The list includes Western Kentucky, Miami Ohio, Ohio, Akron, North Texas, Tulane, Kent State, Boston College, Eastern Michigan, Troy, Texas State and Arizona State.
  • A small number of teams come off a bye week. Coincidentally they are all on the road, including Michigan State, Louisiana Tech, Rice and Air Force.
  • Hurricane Florence gave the following teams an unexpected bye week: UCF, North Carolina, East Carolina, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, NC State, Southern Miss, Appalachian State, Liberty, Marshall and South Carolina.
  • Penn State may have overlook when traveling to Illinois. The Nittany Lions draw Ohio State in Week 5.
  • North Texas, off an upset at Arkansas, travels to Liberty on back-to-back road games. There is overlook for the Mean Green to divisional rival Louisiana Tech in Week 5.

A Few Other Week 4 Notes

  • Clemson will face a triple-option offense a second week in a row against Georgia Tech.
  • Tulane travels to Ohio State in a Buckeyes hangover-overlook spot.  The Green Wave are top 25 in rushing explosiveness, while the Buckeyes are outside the top 90 in defending rush explosiveness.
  • Quarterback Eric Dungey left the Syracuse game with blurred vision while also battling a right shoulder injury.  His status is unknown for UConn.
  • Quarterback Frank Nutile did not play in Temple’s win at Maryland; his status is unknown for Thursday’s game against Tulsa.
Credit:

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Florida State Seminoles quarterback Deondre Francois

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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73
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74.5
67.5
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60
-3.5
-3
53.5
-2
51.5
-1.5
57.5
PK
60
55
-3.5
56
-3
61
-3.5
60
-6
41
-2
40.5
PK
56.5
-3
55
-3.5
-3
47
-4
48
-6.5
55
-3.5
55
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
68
54.5
-6.5
55
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-4
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60
56
-11
55
-11.5
79
-13.5
80.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-4.5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74.5
45
-6.5
46
-7.5
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-6
-5
44.5
-7
44
-8
54.5
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55.5
48
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58.5
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58
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58
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58
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