Purdue 2018 Betting Preview: Expect Defensive Regression, Plenty of Overs
Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jeff Brohm
Purdue 2018 Betting Odds
- To win the National Title: +50000
- To win the Big Ten: +4500
- To win the Big Ten East: +1275
- Win Total: 6 (over -130, under -110)
Always shop for the best line.
Purdue 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds
The Action Network Projected Wins: 5.1
Bet To Watch
Purdue Win Total Under 6 +100
Hiring Jeff Brohm before last season was a game-changer for Purdue. He’s a coach on the rise and was a cover-the-spread machine at Western Kentucky, so he should help the Boilermakers shed the “Purdon’t” moniker.
As a former quarterback and offensive coordinator from the Bobby Petrino coaching tree, Brohm is known for his offense. Surprisingly, it was the Boilermaker upperclassmen on defense who helped the Brohm era get off to a solid start (7-6 record and a Foster Farms Bowl victory over Khalil Tate and Arizona).
Before last year, I had never seen 11 Purdue defenders swarm to the football, and that’s all coaching. Nick Holt returns as defensive coordinator, but the Purdue defense ranks 125th in returning production for 2018.
There are three games Purdue will not win with its current defense (Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin). That leaves six games projected within a field goal, making the win total an interesting play.
The beauty of this future is having three games projected close to a pick’em in November. If Purdue happens to sweep September, there are plenty of chances to hedge in November. I will roll the dice on Under 6 +100, especially when the schedule features teams on the rise (Boston College, Nebraska, even Eastern Michigan)
What else you need to know about Purdue
Purdue had a positive number in 2nd Order Wins — meaning the Boilermakers outplayed their record slightly thanks to a stellar defense. But they may be caught in more shootouts this year. Last season, nine of the Boilermakers’ 13 games went under, including a run of seven straight late in the year.
With Purdue ranking 41st in plays per game at 74.6 in 2017, look for some high-scoring affairs early this season against Northwestern (11th in plays per game), Missouri, and Boston College (25th in plays per game). Bookmakers might not adjust totals for the lack of defense by the Boilermakers early in the season.