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San Diego State 2018 Betting Preview: A Predictable Program, In a Good Way

Aug 20, 2018 8:24 AM EDT

San Diego State 2018 Betting Odds

  • To win the Mountain West: +660
  • To win the West Division: +148
  • Win Total: 8.5 (over -125, under -105)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 19. Always shop for the best line.


San Diego State 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds

The Action Network Projected Wins: 8.4

Bet To Watch

San Diego State Over 8.5 Wins (-125)

Nothing is more reliable in college football than a San Diego State rushing attack complemented by a Rocky Long-flavored 3-3-5 defense. This formula has withstood plenty of skilled production losses, from Marshall Faulk almost 25 years ago to Donnel Pumphrey.

This year, the Aztecs lose running back Rashaad Penny, but return Juwan Washington and a strong offensive line. Washington averaged 6.6 yards per carry with 13 touchdowns in his first two seasons.

Quarterback Christian Chapman is back for his senior season, and his sole job is to have a decent enough passing success rate to keep the chains moving so the ground game can thrive. Chapman’s passing success rate has been a steady 66th and 43rd over the past two years, respectively.

The defense returns playmakers on every level, none more important than sophomore safety Tariq Thompson. As a freshman, Thompson contributed three tackles for loss, five interceptions and a forced fumble.

As part of a secondary that ranked 14th in havoc last year, Thompson will be hunting for more pick sixes against a schedule of inefficient passing attacks (Eastern Michigan, Air Force, New Mexico).

I’m taking the San Diego State win total over 8.5 -125. The Aztecs should sweep the schedule outside of Stanford, Boise State and Fresno State, making nine wins a cash at the window.

The problem is that this schedule isn’t setup for a Mountain West title run, with trips to both Boise and Fresno, arguably the league’s two best teams.

Fresno beat SDSU emphatically 27-3 on the Aztecs’ home turf last season. The Bulldogs return all of their 2017 offense, and should have the same fortune this year.

What else you need to know about San Diego State

Since the creation of the Mountain West’s West Division in 2013, San Diego State or Fresno State has won each year.

SDSU is a team to bet in conference play, going 18-7-1 ATS against the Mountain West since 2015.

More College Football Betting Previews

Click here for team previews on all 130 FBS schools.

Credit:

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rocky Long

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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# BETS
-2.5
44
-2.5
43
55
-4.5
54
-2.5
-3
54.5
-2.5
55
-6
66.5
-6
68.5
48
-11
49.5
-12.5
-2.5
73
-3.5
75
67.5
-5
59.5
-3.5
-3
53.5
-2
51.5
-1.5
57.5
PK
60
55
-3.5
56
-2.5
61
-3.5
60
-6
41
-2
39.5
PK
56.5
-3
55
-4.5
-3
47
-3.5
48
-6.5
55
-4.5
55.5
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
67
54.5
-6.5
55
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-5.5
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60
56
-11
55
-13.5
79
-13.5
80.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-6
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74.5
45
-6.5
46
-7
58.5
-4.5
59
-6
-5
44.5
-7
44
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-7
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-13.5

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