Texas vs. TCU Betting Odds & Pick: Back Gary Patterson and the Frogs Against Top-25 Longhorns? (Saturday, Oct. 3)


Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Duggan.

  • TCU travels to Austin as a double-digit underdog to take on in-state rival Texas.
  • The Longhorns may be the more talented team, but Dillon Essma likes Gary Patterson's squad getting 12 points.
  • Check out Essma's full analysis and pick with updated odds below.

Texas vs. TCU Betting Odds

Texas Odds -10.5 [BET NOW]
TCU Odds +10.5 [BET NOW]
Moneyline -385/+290 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 63.5 [BET NOW]
Time Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET

Odds updated Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Texas welcomes TCU to Austin for an enticing matchup Saturday morning. Since TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012, the Horned Frogs are actually 6-2 outright against Texas. The Longhorns have more talent, but it should be a competitive game between the in-state rivals.

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TCU Horned Frogs

TCU looks to bounce back after its close 37-34 loss to Iowa State last week. I thought the Horned Frogs played pretty well in their first game of the season. They won the time of possession battle and ran 33 more plays than the Cyclones. The ground game was a struggle, however, generating only 2.3 YPC.

The Frogs were more successful through the air, generating 10.0 yards per attempt. Max Duggan is their more dangerous option at QB. Due to a heart condition, he didn’t start against Iowa State but saw playing time as the game progressed. If he can start — which it sounds likely — TCU should be dangerous enough to give Texas some problems.

The defensive side of the ball may be more of an issue. The Horned Frogs allowed Iowa State to gain 8.3 yards per play, including 7.6 yards per carry. It’s only one game, but TCU generated passing explosiveness of 2.2, which is good for second in the Big 12. Texas’ stuff rate through two games sits at 0.42, which is last in the Big 12 by a wide margin. TCU should be able to run the ball with more success this week. If Duggan can go, I expect this game to have some pace to it, and TCU should be able to keep up with the Longhorns.

Texas Longhorns

Texas won in a tight battle last week, outlasting Texas Tech in overtime, 63-56.

I think it’s safe to say it wasn’t the most impressive performance by the Longhorns. The Red Raiders were 17-point underdogs but looked very even with Texas if we dive into the box score. Each side’s yards per play, yards per attempt, and yards per carry were all basically dead even.

Texas won the turnover battle, 3-1, and out-executed Tech in overtime. But the Texas offense has not shown explosiveness thus far. A passing explosiveness of 1.46 and rushing explosiveness of 0.8 are both in the bottom half of the Big 12 in the early part of the season. It’s very early, but the Longhorns have more to prove. The defensive side of the ball has been average as well, and the league-worst stuff rate needs to be addressed. With that said, Texas is clearly the more talented team and should prevail in this game.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

While Texas is the more talented team, I like TCU getting double digits and imagine there are plenty of points scored here. Gary Patterson plays Texas very tough, and Tom Herman hasn’t done much to convince me to lay the points with Texas in this matchup.

With the Horned Frogs’ 6-2 record since joining the Big 12, I definitely prefer the side of TCU. I liked it much better when the line was still at TCU +12, but the Horned Frogs could still be worth a play at +10.5, though I do have less conviction at that number.

Pick: TCU +12 or better would be ideal. Perhaps only a soft play at TCU +10.5.

[Bet TCU +10.5 now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

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