Temple-Duke Betting Guide: Blue Devils Reeling Entering 2018 Independence Bowl

Temple-Duke Betting Guide: Blue Devils Reeling Entering 2018 Independence Bowl article feature image

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Daniel Jones and Anthony Russo

2018 Independence Bowl Betting Odds: Temple-Duke

  • Odds: Temple -3.5
  • Over/Under: 54.5
  • Date: Thursday, Dec. 27
  • Location: Shreveport, La.
  • Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of Wednesday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets.

Is there a team entering bowl season on a worse note than Duke? The Blue Devils lost their last two games by a combined score of 94-13, including a 59-7 home loss to Wake Forest to end the season.

Temple lost coach Geoff Collins to Georgia Tech after an excellent second half of the year. The Owls lost only one game in October or November — a 52-40 loss to UCF despite outgaining the Knights.

Here is each team’s S&P+ rating by week. Should you stick with the riser, or is there value in the faller?

Odds Movement for Temple-Duke

By Danny Donahue

Temple is one of only a few favorites this bowl season to be seeing fewer than 50% of bets on its side. The Owls have generated 38% of both bets and dollars, but have still moved from -3 to -3.5.

As for the total, big money is hitting the under in this game. Although it has attracted just 37% of bettors, those bettors have accounted for 83% of money being wagered on the total, dropping the number from 56.5 to 54.

Did You Know?

By John Ewing

Duke lost its last game, 59-7, to Wake Forest, while Temple rolled UConn, 57-7, in its season finale. This is just the third bowl game since 2005 to feature a team that lost by 30 or more points playing a team that won by 30 or more points the last time out.

In the previous two instances, the team coming off the blowout loss went 2-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).

By Evan Abrams

Duke enters its bowl game against Temple coming off two extremely poor offensive performances, scoring just six and seven points in its last two games.

Since 2005, teams entering their bowl game off consecutive bad offensive games have performed well ATS:

  • Fewer than 14 points: 7-2 ATS (+3.4 ATS diff.)
  • 17 points or fewer: 26-14 ATS (+4.3 ATS diff.)

Temple Has Elite Pass Defense

By Stuckey

Believe it or not, Temple’s defense finished with the lowest pass yards per attempt in the country at 5.1. And per S&P+, the Owls finished with the No. 1 overall pass defense in the nation.

Yards per attempt allowed:

  • Temple 5.1
  • Notre Dame 5.4
  • Miss State 5.4
  • Michigan 5.5
  • Miami 5.5

This is a Temple defense that simply doesn’t allow explosive plays either, ranking sixth in IsoPPP. The Owls should shut down a really inefficient Duke offense.

Cutcliffe Money in Bowls

By Steve Petrella

Duke coach David Cutcliffe is 8-2 ATS in bowl games, with one of those losses being the infamous 2012 Belk Bowl that the Blue Devils should have covered.

Since coming to Duke, Cutcliffe is 4-1 ATS in bowls and 5-0 to the over, eclipsing the total by 12.6 points per game. His offenses have scored at least 31 points in each of those bowl games.

Duke Won’t Pressure the QB

By Stuckey

Duke had only 21 sacks on the season for an average of 1.75 per game, which ranks 95th in the country. Don’t expect the Blue Devils to get many against a stellar Temple offensive line that only allowed 15 in 12 games this year — good enough for a top-20 clip.

The advanced metrics tell the same story. The Owls’ offensive line ranks 13th overall in Adjusted Sack Rate, while Duke’s defensive line ranks 96th overall in that same category. And even more alarming, the Blue Devils rank 129th in Adjusted Sack Rate on Passing Downs.

Assuming he can go, Temple quarterback Anthony Russo (who missed the season finale) should have all day to throw in the Independence Bowl against a reeling Duke team that ended the season with two losses by a combined score of 94-13.

Russo Expected to Play

By Steve Petrella

Temple’s offense improved when Anthony Russo took over at quarterback and hit its stride late in the season. The Owls had at least 6.0 yards per play in five of their final seven games.

Russo missed the season finale against UConn with a hand injury, but is expected to play against Duke.

Bet to Watch

By Collin Wilson

Is there anyone more motivated for this game than Ed Foley? The Owls interim head coach will coach his second bowl since 2016 and has been a coach under four different Temple head coaches in his time with the program. Although nothing has been made official, Foley expects to be coaching under new head coach Manny Diaz after the Independence Bowl.

This is a different interim situation, as Geoff Collins instructed assistants to stay with the Owls for practices in lieu of hitting the recruiting trail for Georgia Tech. Collins and Foley both have a deep bond with this senior class as they prepare for their fourth straight bowl.

The Blue Devils ended the season on a sour note. Duke should continue to have issues stopping Temple in this bowl, as it only created three interceptions on the season and has an overall havoc rate of 122nd.

That will be an issue against a Temple team that is 15th overall in passing downs offensively and has been much better since Russo took over. On the flip side of the ball, the Owls have the number one overall S&P+ pass defense.

The total currently sits at The Action Network projection of 54, leaving value only in the side. I will back a Temple roster with 19 seniors with high motivation to close out their fourth straight bowl with a victory for interim coach Ed Foley.

Collin’s Pick: Temple -3.5

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